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炭素取引と農業グリーン全要素生産性：中国パイロット炭素市場の証拠と機械化の媒介効果

Carbon trading and agricultural green total factor productivity: evidence from China’s pilot carbon market and the mediating role of mechanization (原題)

Jiayi Hou, Alessandra Castellini, Fujiang Huang

Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-09-09#炭素価格Origin: CN経営インパクト: 調達リスク対象セクター: agriculture
DOI: 10.3389/fsufs.2026.1922103
原典: https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2026.1922103

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

中国の炭素取引パイロット政策（CTPP）が農業グリーン全要素生産性（AGTFP）に与える影響を、2005〜2022年の30省パネルとDIDで検証。CTPPはAGTFPを0.1351単位（平均の18.3%）押し上げ、Callaway–Sant'Anna推定量でも正で有意。農業機械化が媒介経路の可能性を示すが、Sobel検定では10%有意にとどまる。東部・西部で有意、中部では非有意。

English

Using a DID model on 30 Chinese provinces (2005–2022), this study finds China's carbon trading pilot policy raised agricultural green total factor productivity by 0.1351 units (18.3% of the mean), robust to the Callaway–Sant'Anna estimator. Agricultural mechanization appears a possible transmission channel, though the Sobel test shows only marginal (10%) significance. Effects are significant in eastern and western China but not central China.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本では農業分野のGXはJ-クレジット（農地土壌炭素等）やみどりの食料システム戦略が中心で、炭素市場が農業生産性に波及する経路の実証は乏しい。炭素価格の産業間スピルオーバーを定量的に示す本稿は、SSBJ開示やScope 3算定における農業サプライチェーンの扱いを考える材料になる。

In the global GX context

As carbon pricing expands under EU ETS, CBAM and emerging Asian schemes, evidence that industrial carbon markets generate productivity spillovers into agriculture is directly relevant to debates on policy coherence between carbon markets and sustainable agriculture. It also speaks to scope 3 and land-sector accounting under ISSB/CSRD.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:炭素市場の非対象セクターへの波及効果をDIDで識別する手法と、AGTFP測定（SBM–GML）の応用例として参考になる。

🏢実務担当者:農業サプライチェーンを持つ食品・商社は、炭素価格が調達コストや生産性に波及しうる点をScope 3・調達戦略で考慮すべき。

🏛政策担当者:炭素市場設計と農業政策の調整、特に地域間格差を踏まえた機械化・技術普及支援の必要性を示唆する。

📄 Abstract（原文）

Agriculture is both a major source of greenhouse gas emissions and highly vulnerable to climate-related risks, yet the implications of carbon pricing for agricultural sustainability remain insufficiently understood. This study examines the effect of China’s carbon trading pilot policy (CTPP) on agricultural green total factor productivity (AGTFP) using a difference-in-differences (DID) model and panel data covering 30 provinces from 2005 to 2022. AGTFP is measured using the SBM–GML index, with agricultural carbon emissions treated as an undesirable output. The baseline results show that the CTPP increases AGTFP by 0.1351 units, equivalent to 18.3% of the sample mean. Given the staggered adoption of the policy, the robustness of this finding is further assessed using the heterogeneity-robust Callaway–Sant’Anna estimator. The resulting estimate remains positive and statistically significant, although cohort-specific pre-treatment variation warrants cautious interpretation. The mediation results suggest that agricultural mechanization, measured by the comprehensive mechanization rate of crop plowing, sowing, and harvesting (AMR), may constitute a potential transmission channel. The Sobel test provides marginal evidence of an indirect effect at the 10% significance level. Regional estimates are positive and statistically significant in eastern and western China but statistically insignificant in central China. These findings provide new evidence that carbon pricing directed at industrial emitters may generate spillovers to agricultural productivity and highlight the importance of coordinating carbon-market development with sustainable agricultural policy.

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