Empirical Study and Prediction on the Influencing Factors of Carbon Emission Rights Trading Prices-Taking the National Carbon Emission Rights Trading Market in China as an Example
炭素排出権取引価格の影響要因に関する実証研究と予測—中国全国炭素排出権取引市場を例として (AI 翻訳)
Mingyu Liang, Yiling Zuo
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は2021年から2025年の中国全国炭素市場を対象に、政策、EUA価格、GDP、HS300、石炭価格、国際原油価格などの変数を用いてOLS回帰分析を行い、炭素価格の中核的な影響要因が政策とエネルギー価格であることを明らかにした。緩和的な政策やエネルギー価格の低下は炭素価格を下げ、原油価格の上昇は炭素価格を押し上げる。EUA価格の波及効果も確認され、多頻度データ統合の問題を解決し、翌月の炭素価格動向予測モデルを構築した。
English
This paper studies the Chinese national carbon market from 2021 to 2025 using OLS regression with variables including policy, EUA prices, GDP, HS300, coal prices, and international oil prices. Findings show that policies and energy prices are core drivers: lenient policies and falling energy prices lower carbon prices, while rising crude oil prices raise them. The EUA price shows an overflow effect. The study solves multi-frequency data integration and builds a model to predict next-month carbon price trends, filling an empirical gap in the national carbon market.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本でも東京都や埼玉県の排出量取引、国レベルのJ-クレジットやカーボンプライシング構想が進む中、中国全国市場の価格決定要因の実証分析は、日本の制度設計や市場安定化策に示唆を与える。ただし、中国固有の政策やエネルギー市場構造が反映されている点に注意が必要。
In the global GX context
This study contributes to the global understanding of carbon price determinants in emerging carbon markets, particularly the world's largest by coverage. It provides empirical evidence on the role of policy and energy prices, and the influence of EUA prices, relevant for international carbon market linkage and mechanism design.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides an empirical model for carbon price determinants in a national ETS, applicable to similar markets.
🏢実務担当者:Offers insights into factors that affect carbon price trends, useful for trading and risk management strategies.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the impact of policy adjustments and energy prices on carbon market stability, informing regulatory design.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Under the backdrop of global climate change, market-based emission reduction has become a consensus. This paper takes the national carbon market from 2021 to 2025 as the object of study, selects variables such as policies, EUA prices of the European Union, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), HS300, coal prices, and international oil prices, and unifies daily and quarterly data into monthly data for OLS regression analysis. The research findings indicate that policies and energy prices are the core influencing factors of carbon prices: lenient policies (such as a slight increase in quotas and the restart of CCER) and a decline in energy prices will lower carbon prices, while an increase in crude oil prices will push carbon prices up. The EUA price in the European Union has an overflow effect. At the same time, the research has successfully solved the problem of integrating multi-frequency data, verified the rationality of energy price indicators, and the constructed model can predict the trend of carbon prices in the next month. This research fills the empirical gap in the national carbon market, provides quantitative basis for market stability and mechanism improvement, and helps to achieve the "dual carbon" goals.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
gxceed は公開メタデータに基づく研究支援データセットです。要約・翻訳・解説は AI 支援で生成されています。 最終的な解釈・検証は利用者が原典資料に基づいて行うことを前提とします。