A Dynamic Assessment of Manufacturing Low-Carbon Transition in the Chengdu–Chongqing Economic Circle: A Set Pair Analysis with State Transition Matrix
成都–重慶経済圏における製造業低炭素転換の動的評価：集合対分析と状態遷移行列 (AI 翻訳)
Xin Liao, Yuguo Jiang, Qiang Lin, Ping Jiang
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は成都-重慶経済圏の8都市を対象に、経済・技術・エネルギー・排出・環境の5次元から低炭素製造業転換を評価。集合対分析と状態遷移行列を用いた動的評価の結果、地域内に「マシュー効果」と三段階構造（高水準安定的、中位変動的、低位固定的）が存在し、転換は未だ不安定であることを示した。
English
This study assesses low-carbon manufacturing transition in eight cities of the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle using a dynamic Set Pair Analysis model with a state transition matrix. It reveals a 'Matthew effect' and a three-tier structure: high-level steady, intermediate fluctuating, and low-level locked. The transition remains notably unstable, providing evidence for coordinated regional policy.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
中国の地域製造業低炭素転換に関する事例研究であり、日本のGX政策（例：グリーン成長戦略）とは直接の関連は薄いが、地域間格差やロックイン現象を分析する手法は参考になる。
In the global GX context
This paper offers a Chinese regional case study on low-carbon manufacturing transition, using a dynamic assessment method. While not directly applicable to global frameworks like TCFD or ISSB, its findings on path dependence and regional disparities are relevant for transition finance and just transition discussions.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:The dynamic SPA-state transition method is novel for tracking industrial decarbonization pathways and could be adapted to other regions or sectors.
🏢実務担当者:Manufacturing firms in multi-city regions can use the tier classification to benchmark transition maturity and identify lock-in risks.
🏛政策担当者:China's regional policymakers can use the evidence of 'Matthew effect' and unstable transitions to design targeted interventions for lagging cities.
📄 Abstract（原文）
In response to global climate change and China’s “Dual Carbon” goals, the transition to low-carbon manufacturing has become a crucial step for achieving high-quality regional development. This study focuses on the Chengdu–Chongqing Economic Circle and constructs a comprehensive evaluation system spanning economic, technological, energy, carbon emission, and environmental dimensions. By applying a dynamic Set Pair Analysis (SPA) model coupled with a state transition matrix, we assess the low-carbon manufacturing performance of eight core cities from 2016 to 2023. The results indicate the following: (1) Strong path dependence characterizes regional low-carbon development, revealing a “Matthew effect” in which leading cities continue to advance while lagging ones face persistent barriers. (2) Cities are evolving into distinct equilibrium patterns: Chongqing is progressing toward full optimization, and Chengdu and Mianyang remain in a high-level equilibrium, whereas Suining and Zigong show signs of long-term low-level lock-in. (3) A three-tier regional structure emerges: Chongqing and Chengdu represent a high-level steady state; Deyang, Mianyang, Yibin, and Luzhou form an intermediate fluctuating tier; and Suining and Zigong constitute a low-level locked tier. (4) The low-carbon transition of manufacturing within the region remains markedly unstable, with cities such as Deyang and Yibin yet to establish steady low-carbon trajectories and remaining susceptible to regression. These findings provide a robust, evidence-based foundation for policymaking aimed at fostering coordinated and sustainable low-carbon development in the Chengdu–Chongqing region’s manufacturing sector.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.3390/su18094164first seen 2026-05-17 05:25:34
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