気候行動対食料安全保障：インドにおけるE20エタノール混合、砂糖転用、砂糖価格の実証的評価—SDGs枠組みの中で
Climate Action Versus Food Security: An Empirical Assessment Of E20 Ethanol Blending, Sugar Diversion And Sugar Prices In India Within The Sustainable Development Goals Framework (原題)
Dr. R. Kalirajan, Dr. R. Alagesan, Dr. S. Vigneswaran
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
インドのE20エタノール混合政策が砂糖価格に与える影響を、生産量・在庫・輸出・気候・原油価格・食料インフレを統制して実証分析した。ARDL/ECMと構造変化検定を用い、エタノール転用は価格に影響するが、E20単独で近年の砂糖価格上昇を説明するのは過剰だと結論。フィードストック多様化と食料・水安全保障を両立する「持続可能なE20」を提唱する。
English
This paper empirically assesses whether diverting sugar to ethanol under India's E20 blending mandate independently affects domestic sugar prices, controlling for production, stocks, exports, climate, crude oil and food inflation. Using ARDL/ECM and structural-break tests, it finds ethanol diversion matters but cannot alone explain recent sugar price rises. It argues for a 'Sustainable E20' balancing energy security with food and water security.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本のGX文脈では、バイオ燃料導入と食料・土地利用のトレードオフを扱う点が参考になる。特に食料安全保障と脱炭素の両立は、日本のエネルギー政策・農業政策の議論にも示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
Globally, this contributes to the food-versus-fuel debate within climate action and SDG frameworks, offering empirical evidence from a major biofuel producer. It informs policy design for sustainable bioenergy that avoids unintended food price and water impacts.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:バイオ燃料政策と食料価格の因果関係を実証的に分析する手法と、SDGsとの整合性評価の枠組みを提供する。
🏢実務担当者:バイオ燃料原料の調達や食品業界における価格リスク管理の参考になる。
🏛政策担当者:エタノール混合義務の設計において、食料安全保障と水資源への影響を考慮する必要性を示唆する。
📄 Abstract（原文）
India’s move towards E20 ethanol blending has become an important part of its efforts to improve energy security and address climate concerns. Ethanol blending increased from 3.54% in 2015–16 to 19.24% in 2024–25, while India subsequently reached the 20% blending level during 2025–26. At the same time, sugar and sugarcane have become increasingly important feedstocks for ethanol, creating a food–energy allocation problem. This paper develops an empirical framework to examine whether diversion of sugar towards ethanol has an independent effect on domestic sugar prices after controlling for sugar production, opening stocks, exports, climate conditions, crude-oil prices and food inflation. The study considers these developments in relation to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), with particular attention to SDG 2 (Zero Hunger), SDG 6 (Clean Water), SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy), SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production), and SDG 13 (Climate Action). The empirical analysis is designed around monthly data for 2015–16 to 2025–26, subject to data availability, and uses ARDL/ECM, structural-break tests and a set of robustness checks. The available evidence suggests that ethanol diversion matters, but it would be too strong to explain the recent rise in sugar prices by E20 alone. Production prospects, weather, opening stocks, seasonal demand and speculative activity also appear to have played a role. The study therefore argues for a “Sustainable E20” approach that preserves the energy-security gains of ethanol while giving greater weight to feedstock diversification, food security and water availability.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22302875first seen 2026-09-25 04:34:53 · last seen 2026-09-25 04:37:08
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