SSP-RCPシナリオ下における土地利用変化・CO2上昇・気候変動に対する全球陸域水利用効率の応答

Global terrestrial water use efficiency responses to land-use change, rising CO2, and climate change under SSP-RCP scenarios (原題)

Haiyan Hou, Zhiguang Tang, Yuanzhi Yao, Fengsong Pei, 国华胡, Cheng Wang, Nan Chu, Xia Li

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-10-23#気候科学Origin: Global

DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111545

原典: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111545

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

Common Land Modelを用い、SSP-RCPシナリオ下で土地利用変化・気候変動・CO2上昇が将来の水利用効率（WUE）に与える影響を分離定量した研究。CO2上昇がWUE変化の約75〜78%を占め最も支配的で、気候変動は約20〜24%を占めWUEを低下させる。土地利用変化の寄与は全球平均で1%程度と小さいが、人間活動が集中する地域で局所的に負の影響が顕在化する。

English

Using the Common Land Model under SSP-RCP scenarios, this study isolates how land-use change, climate change, and rising CO2 affect future terrestrial water use efficiency (WUE). Rising CO2 dominates, driving 75-78% of global WUE change, while climate change reduces WUE (20-24%). Land-use change contributes only ~1% globally but causes localized negative impacts in human-dominated and ecologically sensitive regions.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

炭素吸収と水資源のトレードオフを示す基礎科学的知見であり、日本企業のScope 3・自然資本開示（TNFD）や土地利用政策の背景理解に資するが、直接の規制・開示要件との接続は弱い。

In the global GX context

Provides biophysical grounding for the carbon-water trade-offs increasingly relevant to nature-related disclosure (TNFD) and land-sector accounting under ISSB, though it does not directly address corporate disclosure frameworks.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:陸域炭素水結合に対するCO2・気候・土地利用の寄与分離手法とシナリオ間比較の枠組みを参考にできる。

🏢実務担当者:自然資本・水リスク評価における土地利用変化の局所的影響を理解する基礎情報として活用可能。

🏛政策担当者:土地利用政策が炭素吸収と水資源に与える地域的トレードオフを踏まえた政策設計の示唆を得られる。

📄 Abstract（原文）

Global land-use changes (LUC), elevated CO 2 , and the resulting climate change are recognized as major forces shaping terrestrial carbon and water interactions. Nevertheless, few studies have systematically disentangled their individual and combined influences on future carbon-water linkages across spatial scales, especially under the uncertainty of evolving socioeconomic conditions. In this research, we employed Common Land Model to isolate and quantify the separate contributions of LUC, climate change, and rising CO 2 to changes in future Water Use Efficiency (WUE)—a pivotal metric reflecting carbon-water processes—within the scenario framework of integrated SSP-RCP pathways. Results indicate that rising CO 2 concentrations will significantly enhance WUE during the 21st century by regulating vegetation transpiration and carbon assimilation, accounting for 75.43%–78.25% of global WUE changes and dominating most terrestrial areas. Conversely, climate change is projected to reduce WUE across most of the global terrestrial, contributing 20.54%–24.13% of the global WUE variation. LUC, while exerting smaller overall effects, is anticipated to have localized negative impacts, with the most pronounced trends under SSP4–3.4. Although LUC accounted for only 0.39%–1.21% of global mean WUE variations, it primarily affects regions with concentrated human activity and ecological sensitivity. For instance, Eastern North America, Europe, and tropical regions like central South America and central Africa are likely to encounter significant WUE challenges. These findings offer valuable insights for formulating global land-use policies aimed at mitigating ecosystem crises and understanding the terrestrial water economics of carbon uptake.

🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース

openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111545first seen 2026-10-25 04:57:24 · last seen 2026-11-06 05:03:23

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