Asymmetric Growth–Energy–Emissions Dynamics in Large Emerging Economies Undergoing Energy Transition

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:The NARDL methodology and evidence of asymmetry in China vs. India provide a strong basis for further research on nonlinear emission dynamics in other transitioning economies.

🏢実務担当者:Corporate sustainability teams can use the findings to anticipate that emission reductions may not symmetrically follow economic or energy use declines, informing scenario analysis and target setting.

🏛政策担当者:The results emphasize that uniform emission reduction policies may be ineffective; differentiated, context-sensitive approaches accounting for structural rigidities and asymmetric responses are necessary.

Purpose: This study examines the asymmetric effects of economic growth, energy consumption, renewable energy, trade openness, and innovation on CO2 emissions in China and India. It aims to determine whether positive and negative shocks in these variables generate different environmental responses across economies undergoing energy transition. Design/methodology/approach: The analysis employs a Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model using annual data from 1990 to 2023. The framework decomposes explanatory variables into positive and negative partial sums to estimate asymmetric long-run and short-run effects. Dynamic multipliers are used to trace adjustment paths, while a symmetric ARDL model serves as a robustness check. Findings: The results reveal strong and persistent asymmetries in China, particularly in energy use, renewable energy, and innovation. Positive energy shocks significantly increase emissions, while reductions produce limited environmental gains, reflecting structural rigidities. Renewable energy reduces emissions asymmetrically, and innovation exhibits direction-dependent effects. In contrast, India shows weaker and more selective asymmetries, with emissions primarily driven by short-run energy demand and limited long-run structural effects. The symmetric model fails to capture these dynamics, confirming the importance of nonlinear modeling. Conclusion: The findings demonstrate that emissions dynamics are nonlinear and country-specific. Asymmetry is more pronounced in structurally advanced economies undergoing energy transition, while developing economies remain demand-driven. These results highlight the need for differentiated and context-specific environmental policies.

• crossref https://doi.org/10.3390/resources15050065first seen 2026-05-14 23:16:18