政策の安定性は気候被害が経済成長に与える影響を緩和できるか：北アフリカにおけるグリーン対内直接投資流入からの証拠

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:気候被害・制度品質・グリーンFDIの相互作用を動学パネルで識別する手法と、CDI構築の実証的枠組みを提供する。

🏢実務担当者:北アフリカ等の新興国事業・投融資において、政策安定性とグリーンFDI流入を気候リスク緩和要因として評価する視点を与える。

🏛政策担当者:ソブリングリーンボンド枠組みや二国間投資協定、制度改善を通じて気候耐性資本を誘引する政策設計の根拠を提供する。

<title>Abstract</title> <p> This paper investigates whether policy stability can mitigate the adverse effects of climate-induced damages on economic growth, and whether green foreign direct investment (GFDI) serves as a conduit for this buffering mechanism in North Africa. Using an unbalanced panel dataset covering six North African economies — Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, and Tunisia — over the period 2000–2022, we employ a two-step System Generalized Method of Moments (System GMM) estimator to address endogeneity, reverse causality, and unobserved heterogeneity. Our empirical strategy integrates a composite Climate Damage Index (CDI) constructed from temperature anomalies, precipitation shocks, and extreme weather event frequencies, alongside the World Governance Indicators (WGI) Political Stability sub-index and UNCTAD-sourced green FDI flows. Results indicate that climate damages exert a statistically significant and economically meaningful negative impact on per capita GDP growth, consistent with the integrated damage function literature. Crucially, policy stability exhibits a strong positive direct effect on growth and, more importantly, significantly attenuates climate damage coefficients through an interactive moderation term, suggesting that institutional resilience functions as an effective buffer. Green FDI inflows amplify this buffering effect: in economies with higher policy stability scores, GFDI channelled into renewable energy, green infrastructure, and environmental technology absorbs a larger fraction of the climate damage shock. Robustness checks using the Difference GMM estimator, alternative governance proxies (Rule of Law, Government Effectiveness), and a jackknife subsample procedure confirm the stability of core findings. These results carry important policy implications for North African governments seeking to leverage sovereign green bond frameworks, bilateral investment treaties, and institutional reforms to attract climate-resilient capital flows. <bold>JEL Classification:</bold> C23; F21; O55; Q54; Q56 </p>

• Research Square https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-10328826/v1first seen 2026-09-16 04:20:21 · last seen 2026-09-21 04:22:13