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Carbon emissions economic growth trade openness and urbanization nexus in Somalia

ソマリアにおける炭素排出、経済成長、貿易開放度、都市化の相互関係 (AI 翻訳)

Sharif Abdi Mohamed, Abdikani Yusuf Abdulle

Discover Sustainability📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-05-26#その他
DOI: 10.1007/s43621-026-03511-3
原典: https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-026-03511-3

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本稿はソマリアの1991～2022年の年次データを用い、VECMによりCO2排出、経済成長、エネルギー消費、貿易開放度、FDI、都市化の長期的関係と因果関係を分析。経済成長とエネルギー消費は排出を増加させる一方、都市化とFDIは排出削減に寄与する可能性を示した。貿易開放度は弱い正の影響。持続可能な都市化とグリーンFDIが成長と環境のデカップリングに重要と結論。

English

Using annual data from 1991–2022 for Somalia, this paper employs a VECM to analyze long-run and causal relationships among CO2 emissions, economic growth, energy consumption, trade openness, FDI, and urbanization. Results show that economic growth and energy consumption increase emissions, while urbanization and FDI may reduce them. Trade openness has a modest positive effect. The study suggests sustainable urbanization and green FDI can decouple growth from environmental degradation.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本ではSSBJや有報での気候関連開示が進むが、本稿は脆弱国家における排出経路を実証しており、日本の開発援助や国際協力におけるグリーン投資の効果検証に示唆を与える。

In the global GX context

While global GX disclosure frameworks focus on corporate emissions, this paper provides empirical evidence on the emissions-development trade-off in a fragile state. It highlights the potential of urbanization and FDI as emission-reducing factors, relevant for international climate finance and sustainable development goals.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:VECMを用いた脆弱国家の排出経路分析の手法と結果は、類似国の研究に応用可能。

🏛政策担当者:ソマリアのような脆弱国家では、成長と排出のデカップリングに都市化とグリーンFDIが有効である可能性を示唆。

📄 Abstract（原文）

Abstract This paper investigates the complex relationships between carbon emissions, economic growth, trade openness and urbanization in Somalia, a fragile state where these dynamics remain understudied. using annual data for 1991–2022, we apply a vector error correction model (VECM) to analyses both long-run cointegration and short-run causal relationships among CO 2 emissions, urbanization, economic growth, energy consumption, trade openness, and foreign direct investment (FDI). The empirical results reveal a long-run equilibrium relationship in which economic growth and energy consumption significantly increase CO 2 emissions. In contrast, urbanization and FDI exhibit statistically significant negative long-run impacts on emissions, suggesting that urbanization may generate efficiency gains while FDI could produce a ‘‘pollution halo’’ effect. Trade openness had a modest positive impact. The Granger causality tests indicate immediate pressure on carbon emissions from growth, trade and urbanization. The findings underscore Somalia’s emissions-intensive development trajectory. However, targeted policies promoting sustainable urbanization, green FDI and to renewable energy transitions could decouple economic growth from environmental degradation, fostering sustainable development. A key limitation on this study is the omission of potential critical variables such as institutional quality or renewable energy uptake, due to data constraints which may affect the comprehensiveness of the findings. This study provides critical insights for policymakers seeking to balance economic progress with environmental sustainability in fragile states.

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