安徽省界首ハイテク産業開発区におけるゼロカーボンパーク構想の分析と予測
[Analysis and Prediction of the Zero-carbon Park Initiative in Anhui Jieshou High-tech Industrial Development Zone]. (原題)
Dun Niu, Zi-Mu Xu, Lei Nie, Dan-Zhou Wu, Xin Pan, Shu-heng Hu
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
安徽省界首ハイテク産業開発区を対象に、2019-2023年の炭素排出をLMDIモデルで要因分解し、LEAPモデルで3シナリオ（基準S1、政策S2、強化S3）の排出経路を予測。電力消費が排出の84.48%を占め、経済成長が主因である一方、エネルギー原単位改善と構造転換が抑制効果を持つことを示した。強化シナリオでは2030年にピーク（57.46万トン）を迎え、2040年頃にカーボンニュートラルに近づくが、基準シナリオでは達成不能。ゼロカーボン工業団地の理論的枠組みと実践的経路を提案している。
English
This study analyzes carbon emissions (2019-2023) of Anhui Jieshou High-tech Industrial Development Zone using LMDI factor decomposition and LEAP scenario forecasting. Electricity consumption accounts for 84.48% of emissions, with economic growth as the main driver, while energy intensity and structural optimization have inhibitory effects. Under an enhanced mitigation scenario (S3), the park could peak emissions (574,600 tons) by 2030 and approach carbon neutrality around 2040, whereas the baseline scenario fails to meet dual-carbon goals. It proposes a framework and actionable pathways for zero-carbon industrial parks.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本の産業団地や工業地帯の脱炭素計画（ゼロカーボンパーク構想）に示唆を与える。特に、電力消費が排出の大部分を占める構造は日本の工業地帯と共通し、LMDI・LEAPを用いた要因分解とシナリオ分析は、自治体や企業のカーボンニュートラル計画立案に応用可能。SSBJ開示やサプライチェーン排出削減の文脈でも、地域レベルの排出削減経路の参考になる。
In the global GX context
This paper offers a replicable methodology (LMDI+LEAP) for industrial park decarbonization planning, relevant to global efforts under TCFD/ISSB and net-zero transitions. It highlights the critical role of electricity consumption and high-energy industries, providing empirical evidence for policy design in emerging economies. The scenario approach can inform corporate and regional transition plans aligned with climate disclosure requirements.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a case study combining LMDI and LEAP for industrial park emission forecasting, useful for comparative research on decarbonization pathways.
🏢実務担当者:Offers a framework for setting emission reduction targets and identifying key drivers in industrial parks, applicable to corporate sustainability planning.
🏛政策担当者:Demonstrates the impact of policy scenarios on achieving carbon peak and neutrality, informing regional climate policy design.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Taking the Anhui Jieshou High-Tech Industrial Development Zone as the research object， we analyzed the current carbon emissions of the park in the past five years （2019-2023）， combining the logarithmic Mean Di Index （LMDI） model to analyze the driving factors， and forecasting emission trajectories under three scenarios （baseline S1， policy-driven S2， and enhanced mitigation S3） via the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System （LEAP） model. The results showed that the total carbon emissions of the park in the past five years have still been in the growth stage， mainly due to power consumption （accounting for 84.48%） and high energy-consuming industries （such as non-ferrous metal smelting， electrical machinery manufacturing， etc.）. The economic development effect was the core driving force for the growth of carbon emissions， while energy intensity and structural optimization showed inhibitory effects. LEAP's forecast indicated that under the Enhanced Emission Reduction Scenario （S3）， industrial parks could achieve carbon peaking （574，600 tons） by 2030 and approach carbon neutrality around 2040. Under the benchmark scenario （S1）， carbon emissions continued to increase， failing to achieve the "dual carbon" goals. Finally， tailored to the park's features， the study proposes recommendations establishing a theoretical framework and actionable pathways for zero-carbon industrial parks， while offering references for the low-carbon transition of similar industrial parks.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/42670115first seen 2026-09-05 05:18:30
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