The Empirical Analysis of Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism's Impact on China's Foreign Trade and the Multidimensional Impact Assessment

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:Provides a reproducible empirical framework for analyzing CBAM impact at the product and sector level.

🏢実務担当者:Useful for firms exporting steel, aluminum, and automotive products to the EU to understand cost implications of default vs. verified emission factors.

🏛政策担当者:Highlights the need for robust national emission factor databases and data verification systems to support domestic exporters facing CBAM.

The European Union's CBAM entered its transitional phase in October 2023 and is scheduled to formally require importers to surrender CBAM certificates corresponding to the embedded emissions of covered goods starting in 2026. While most existing studies rely on macro-level assumptions, the actual compliance cost for firms critically depends on emissions accounting boundaries, default values, and on-site data reporting strategies. This study constructs a reproducible "industry-product-factor" empirical framework to bridge this gap based on an analysis of the relevant policies. It mainly comprises two parts: first, identifing the risk exposure for steel, aluminum and their downstream sectors (e.g., automotive); second, utilizing default values from internal research materials and on-site data verification cases, this study conducts comparative calculations to quantify the increase in border carbon costs attributable to the omission of China-specific emission factors or verified on-site data. Based on these findings, the study proposes a response strategy centered on building the real factor system and data governance.

• openalex https://doi.org/10.54254/2754-1169/2026.lh34171first seen 2026-06-10 05:05:28