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気候変動下の森林管理：ドイツにおける樹種転換・成長・炭素貯留のトレードオフ

Managing Forests Under Climate Change: Trade-Offs Between Species Transition, Growth, and Carbon Storage in Germany (原題)

Florian Kraxner, Dmitry G. Schepaschenko, Georg Kindermann, А. Shvidenko, Oskar Franklin, Colin P. Johnstone, Eunbeen Park, Andrey Krasovskiy, Linda See

Forests📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-11-01#気候科学Origin: Global対象セクター: agriculture
DOI: 10.3390/f17111310
原典: https://doi.org/10.3390/f17111310

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

全球森林モデルG4Mを用い、ドイツの森林を4つの気候経路（RCP2.6〜8.5）と3つの管理代替（経済・社会・保全）の下で2100年まで投影した研究。保全型管理は広葉樹と長伐期により温暖化が中程度の経路で炭素貯留を大きく高める一方、経済型は木材収穫最大化を優先しつつ樹種構成を適応させ生産性を最適化する。管理選択が樹種構成・成長・炭素蓄積を大きく左右し、適応戦略の必要性を示す。

English

Using the Global Forest Model (G4M), this study projects German forests to 2100 under four climate pathways (RCP2.6–8.5) and three management alternatives (Economic, Societal, Conservation). Conservation management with broadleaved species and longer rotations notably boosts carbon stocks under moderate pathways, while the Economic alternative maximizes harvest and adapts species composition for productivity. Management choices strongly shape species mix, growth, and carbon storage, underscoring the need for adaptive strategies.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

森林吸収源は日本のGX推進・カーボンニュートラル戦略やJ-クレジット制度の根幹であり、長期の気候経路と管理選択が炭素貯留に与える影響の定量化は国内の森林吸収源政策・企業のオフセット戦略に示唆を与える。

In the global GX context

Forests are a key carbon sink in national inventories and voluntary carbon markets under frameworks like the Paris Agreement and EU LULUCF regulation; this spatially explicit projection of management trade-offs informs how land-sector carbon accounting and nature-based credits may evolve under climate pathways.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:長期気候経路と管理代替が森林炭素・生産性に与えるトレードオフを空間明示モデルで定量化した手法が参考になる。

🏢実務担当者:森林関連の炭素クレジットや自然資本調達に関わる企業は、吸収源の将来不確実性をリスク評価に組み込む示唆を得られる。

🏛政策担当者:森林吸収源政策やLULUCF目標設計において、管理選択と気候経路の組み合わせが炭素貯留に与える幅を考慮すべき点を示す。

📄 Abstract（原文）

Due to climate change, forest growth conditions are changing and may become unfavorable for the tree species currently growing in different regions across the EU. Forest managers can actively plant trees that are better adapted not only to current site conditions but also to those expected in the future. Given the long rotation periods in forestry, consideration of climate projections up to 2100 is crucial. In this paper, we use the Global Forest Model (G4M) to project the future of German forests under different climate pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) and management alternatives (Economic, Societal, and Conservation). Utilizing spatially explicit forest cover and biomass maps with climate and soil data, G4M simulates forest dynamics including species distributions, productivity, growth, and carbon stocks. Our findings reveal substantial variations in forest composition, productivity, and carbon accumulation from growth across the scenarios. The Conservation management alternative, emphasizing broadleaved species and extended rotation times, notably enhances carbon stocks under moderate climate pathways. In contrast, the Economic alternative, focusing on wood harvest maximization, maintains current forest stocks under moderate climate pathways while adapting species composition to optimize productivity. These projections underscore the critical influence of management decisions on species composition, growth, and carbon storage, highlighting the need for adaptive strategies in response to climate change. Our study contributes to the ongoing dialogue on sustainable forest management by providing a comprehensive analysis of future forest dynamics under varying environmental conditions and management regimes.

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