ベトナム炭素市場のエネルギー部門向け設計：炭素価格・無償割当・純ETS価値の電力価格へのパススルーの相互作用

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:ETS設計における無償割当とパススルーの相互作用をCGEで定量化する手法の参照例。

🏢実務担当者:電力・エネルギー企業がETS導入時のコスト転嫁と無償割当影響を試算する際の感度分析枠組み。

🏛政策担当者:新興国ETS設計で無償割当率と価格転嫁がGDP・CPI・排出に与えるトレードオフの定量根拠。

The design of an emissions trading system (ETS) for the energy sector depends jointly on the carbon price, the rate of free allowance allocation, and the extent to which the electricity sector’s net ETS value is reflected through the electricity-price channel. This study extends the static PEP-1-1 computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, calibrated to a 37-account Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) constructed for Viet Nam for 2019, by incorporating sectoral emissions accounting, free allocation, and an ETS accounting balance for a regulated electricity sector. A grid of 126 scenarios combines seven carbon prices (50,000–2,500,000 VND/tCO₂), three free-allocation rates (100%, 90%, and 80%), and six pass-through coefficients (0.1–1.0), with each scenario solved independently around the 2019 base equilibrium. Across the grid, real GDP falls by 0.0048%–5.3104%, the consumer price index (CPI) rises by 0.0058%–6.4877%, household consumption falls by 0.0077%–8.6294%, aggregate output falls by 0.4154%–10.6984%, and modelled emissions fall by 0.6793%–16.9257% relative to the baseline. The sensitivity results indicate a diminishing incremental emission response as the carbon price rises. In the specified local slices, reducing α from 100% to 80% produces larger changes in aggregate outcomes than varying θ from 0.1 to 1.0; because the parameters have different units and ranges, this comparison is not an absolute ranking of parameter importance. FIN_GAP_ELEC, which represents the share of the electricity sector’s net ETS value not reflected through the price channel, is zero when pass-through is complete (θ = 1) and ranges from –VND 48,447 billion to +VND 4,552 billion on the model’s accounting scale. It is not an observed corporate cash flow or government fiscal flow. The analysis is confined to the comparative-static grid; the three-period quasi-dynamic extension is excluded because it lacks a period-specific non-ETS baseline. The study does not identify an optimal policy configuration or make legal recommendations; the findings are conditional on the model’s data, structure, closure, and assumptions

• semanticscholar https://jccs.vn/index.php/imhems/article/download/460/426first seen 2026-10-04 05:02:47 · last seen 2026-10-07 05:23:36