米国電力システム移行における材料需要とサプライチェーン評価
Material demand and supply-chain assessment of U.S. electricity system transitions (原題)
Griffths. Paul Jakob, Moorhead, Avery, Brinkerink, Maarten, Mayfield, Erin
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
米国電力部門の脱炭素化に伴う材料需要を2027年から2050年まで、複数の将来シナリオで統合評価。年間需要は2020年代後半から2030年代にピークを迎え、テルルや希土類などで供給脆弱性が顕在化。国内生産・埋蔵量を超える需要が複数材料で予測され、政策・技術革新への示唆を提供。
English
This study quantifies material demand for U.S. electricity decarbonization from 2027-2050 across multiple scenarios, finding peak demand in the late 2020s-2030s. It identifies supply-chain vulnerabilities for tellurium, dysprosium, and other critical materials, with domestic demand exceeding U.S. production for several materials, informing policy and innovation.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本のGX政策では、再生可能エネルギー拡大に伴う重要鉱物の安定調達が課題。本フレームワークは日本のサプライチェーン強靭化や資源外交戦略の検討に応用可能。
In the global GX context
This framework aligns with global efforts on critical minerals and supply chain resilience, relevant to ISSB and EU regulations on supply chain due diligence. It provides a model for assessing material risks in energy transitions, useful for international policy and corporate strategy.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a comprehensive framework for integrating material demand projections with supply-chain vulnerability assessment in energy transitions.
🏢実務担当者:Helps energy and manufacturing companies anticipate material supply risks and plan procurement strategies for decarbonization projects.
🏛政策担当者:Informs policies on critical mineral supply chain resilience, trade, and investment in domestic production and recycling.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Decarbonizing the U.S. electricity sector will require rapid deployment of generation, storage, and transmission infrastructure, increasing demand for materials. We develop an integrated framework that quantifies annual and cumulative material demand from 2027 to 2050 across an ensemble of U.S. electricity futures spanning alternative policy, technology, and economic assumptions. Across the scenario ensemble, annual demand generally peaks during the late 2020s and 2030s before declining or moderating, with accelerated decarbonization increasing peak demand and more gradual decarbonization sustaining demand over longer periods. Demand uncertainty is driven primarily by U.S. electricity system scenarios for bulk commodities and base and alloying metals, and by material intensity assumptions for specialty metals and rare earth elements. We assess supply-chain vulnerabilities using metrics that characterize current supply-chain structure and compare projected material demand with current domestic and global production and reserves. Projected domestic material demand exceeds current domestic production and reserves for multiple materials, while remaining below current global supply for most. Tellurium, dysprosium, terbium, indium, and neodymium exhibit convergent but distinct supply-chain vulnerabilities, reflecting different combinations of elevated demand relative to global supply, high U.S. import reliance, and geographically concentrated primary production and processing. This framework, which integrates material demand projections with multidimensional supply-chain assessment, can be used to inform energy system planning, technological innovation, and public policy.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- EarthArXiv https://eartharxiv.org/repository/object/14698/download/25561/first seen 2026-08-31 04:32:02 · last seen 2026-09-13 04:13:55
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