System Interaction and Scenario-Based Simulation of Coupling Coordination Between Low-Carbon Transportation and High-Quality Economic Development in the Yellow River Jiziwan Metropolitan Area
黄河流域ジジワン都市圏における低炭素交通と高品質経済発展の結合調整に関するシステム相互作用とシナリオベースシミュレーション (AI 翻訳)
Yanfei Li, Cheng Li
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、黄河流域ジジワン都市圏の18都市を対象に、低炭素交通（LCT）と高品質経済発展（HQED）の結合調整度を評価した。2013年から2022年のパネルデータを用いて、ISM-MICMAC、修正結合調整度モデル、重力モデル、障害度モデル、GM-ARIMA予測モデルを適用した。その結果、両システムの結合調整度は0.4374から0.4702に上昇したが、依然是界線調整段階にとどまった。シナリオ予測では、相乗発展シナリオが最も有効であり、同時にLCTとHQEDを推進することが重要であると示された。
English
This study examines the coupling coordination between low-carbon transportation (LCT) and high-quality economic development (HQED) in the Yellow River Jiziwan Metropolitan Area using panel data from 2013-2022. Applying ISM-MICMAC, modified coupling coordination, gravity, obstacle degree, and GM-ARIMA models, it finds a moderate coordination level (mean 0.4374 to 0.4702) with significant inter-city variation. Scenario simulations show that a synergistic development strategy yields the best outcomes, suggesting simultaneous advancement of LCT and HQED is key for regional green transformation.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
本論文は中国の都市圏を対象としているが、低炭素交通と経済発展の結合調整を評価する手法は、日本の都市部（例：東京圏）におけるグリーン成長戦略にも応用可能である。特に、交通分野の脱炭素化と経済成長の両立を図る際の評価枠組みとして参考になる。
In the global GX context
This paper offers a comprehensive framework for evaluating the synergies between low-carbon transport and economic development, applicable to many urban agglomerations worldwide. Its scenario analysis demonstrates the importance of coordinated policies for achieving sustainable urban growth.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Methodological contribution: combination of ISM-MICMAC, coupling coordination, gravity, and GM-ARIMA models for urban sustainability assessment.
🏢実務担当者:Useful for urban planners to design integrated low-carbon transport and economic development strategies.
🏛政策担当者:Scenario simulations highlight the need for coordinated policies across transportation and economic sectors to achieve regional green transition.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Clarifying the mutual feedback relationship and coordinated evolution characteristics between low-carbon transportation (LCT) and high-quality economic development (HQED) is of great significance for the green transformation of resource-based and ecologically fragile urban agglomerations. Taking 18 cities in the Yellow River Jiziwan Metropolitan Area as the research objects, this paper constructs an evaluation indicator system for LCT and HQED based on panel data from 2013 to 2022, and comprehensively applies the ISM-MICMAC model, a modified coupling coordination degree model, a gravity model, an obstacle degree model, and a combined GM-ARIMA forecasting model to analyze the interaction relationships, spatiotemporal evolution, spatial correlations, and scenario differences between the two systems. The results indicate that: (1) A hierarchical mutual feedback relationship exists between LCT and HQED, in which the relevant factors exhibit a hierarchical association within the system structure, extending from basic input, transportation supply, and economic operation to green and low-carbon outcomes. (2) During the study period, the comprehensive development levels of the two systems generally improved, with the mean coupling coordination degree rising from 0.4374 in 2013 to 0.4702 in 2022, remaining overall at a borderline coordination stage, while inter-city divergence was relatively pronounced. (3) The spatial connection network gradually exhibited multi-node linkage characteristics, yet strong connections remained concentrated in a few core cities. (4) Scenario predictions reveal that the synergistic development scenario is most conducive to enhancing the coupling coordination level, and the differences among scenarios gradually widen after 2026. Simultaneously advancing LCT and HQED is an important pathway to enhance the regional synergy level of the Yellow River Jiziwan Metropolitan Area.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.3390/systems14060717first seen 2026-06-27 04:54:01
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