EU炭素国境調整措置が途上国の貿易と厚生に与える影響の再評価：構造的定量モデル
Reassessing global trade and welfare impacts of EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism in developing countries: a structural quantitative model (原題)
Xiaolong Lu, Hao Li, Yuelan Cheng, Xianmei Liu, Song Wang, Zhaohua Wang
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
EUのCBAMが途上国に与える貿易・厚生影響を、構造的定量貿易モデルで分析。セクター範囲、炭素価格、無償割当の進行に応じて、BRICSや中国の鉄鋼・アルミ等の輸出に大きな影響を与え、インド、ロシア、中国などへの炭素関税負担が大きいことを示す。途上国への政策示唆を提供。
English
This study uses a structural quantitative trade model to analyze the impact of the EU CBAM on trade and welfare in developing countries. It finds significant negative effects on exports of steel, fertilizer, cement, and aluminum from BRICS and China, with the highest carbon tariff burdens on India, Russia, and China. The results provide policy implications for developing countries to prioritize actions for low-carbon development.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本の輸出企業にとって、CBAMの対象拡大や炭素価格上昇は輸出競争力に影響する。日本は高い炭素効率を持つが、間接的な影響やサプライチェーンを通じた影響も考慮する必要がある。本分析は、日本企業のCBAM対応戦略立案に示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This paper contributes to the global debate on CBAM by quantifying its trade and welfare effects on developing countries, highlighting potential inequities. It informs policymakers and researchers about the distributional consequences of carbon border adjustments, relevant for designing fair and effective climate policies.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a rigorous quantitative framework for assessing CBAM impacts, useful for further research on carbon border adjustments and trade.
🏢実務担当者:Helps corporate sustainability teams understand potential trade cost implications of CBAM on their supply chains and export markets.
🏛政策担当者:Offers evidence for developing countries to negotiate CBAM design and prioritize low-carbon development strategies.
📄 Abstract（原文）
The European Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has been agreed on since 2023, while the discussions, especially in developing members that have higher carbon intensity, are still underway. Here, we used a structural quantitative trade model to analyze how the EU CBAM affects the shifts of global trade and welfare along a progression of sector coverage, carbon price and free allowances, through uncovering the interactions with the cost, total quantity and the share of interregional trade. Global trade-related data that cover bilateral trade from the BACI database, tariffs from the WITS database and EU Commission, and World Input-Output Table from Asian Development Bank are collected and aggregated into 54 regions and 35 industries. The CBAM interactions showed a significant impact on the export of BRICS in terms of their steel, fertilizer and cement products and of China’s aluminum product, and of developed countries of Japan and South Korea; this is, it deteriorates trade terms of developing countries. Top five countries with higher carbon tariffs are India (820 million US$), Russia (796 million US$), China (337 million US$), Turkey (163 million US$) and the United States (125 million US$) under 85$/tCO 2 eq carbon tax scenario, and the tariffs would be three-folds under the 250$/tCO 2 eq scenario. Welfare loss is relatively limited among countries in the BAU scenario, while become significant when the EU enlarges its sectoral coverage and carbon price of the CBAM. The re-assessment with published data and the agreement may help developing countries to suggest action priorities and achieve low carbon development.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-026-08941-yfirst seen 2026-09-07 04:39:05
🔔 こうした論文の新着を逃したくない方は キーワードアラート に登録（無料・3キーワードまで）。
gxceed は公開メタデータに基づく研究支援データセットです。要約・翻訳・解説は AI 支援で生成されています。 最終的な解釈・検証は利用者が原典資料に基づいて行うことを前提とします。