Two Decades of Embodied Carbon in MENA’s Construction Sector: Regional Insights and Policy Implications

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🔬研究者:Researchers gain a robust MRIO methodology for embodied carbon and a new regional dataset for MENA construction, including breakpoint analysis linking emissions to macroeconomic events.

🏢実務担当者:Construction firms and material suppliers can use the archetypes to identify supply chain vulnerabilities and prioritize low-carbon procurement, especially in import-dependent economies.

🏛政策担当者:Policymakers in MENA and beyond can apply the differentiated mitigation pathways—industrial decarbonization, material efficiency, green trade governance, and low-carbon reconstruction—to their specific national contexts.

The construction sector is a major contributor to global CO 2 emissions, yet embodied emissions in construction supply chains remain poorly quantified in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), where hydrocarbon-based growth, rapid urbanization, and recurrent reconstruction have created one of the world’s most dynamic construction markets. This study develops a regionally disaggregated, trade-adjusted, consumption-based assessment of embodied carbon associated with construction final demand and upstream supply chains across 23 MENA economies (2000–2021). An environmentally extended multiregional input–output model based on the Eora26 database is combined with international CO 2 inventories to trace construction-related embodied emissions through domestic production and global supply chains. The framework separates domestic, intra-MENA, and extra-MENA embodied imports; quantifies supplier concentration (Herfindahl–Hirschman index, three- and five-supplier concentration ratios); and applies segmented-regression breakpoint analysis to relate emissions trajectories to macroeconomic, conflict, and sanctions episodes. Results show embodied construction emissions increased from 88.8 to 232.1 Mt CO 2 (2000–2021), totaling 3,498 Mt CO 2 cumulatively. Six system-shaper economies (Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iran, UAE, Algeria, Egypt) account for about 70% of the total, while import-dependent economies (e.g., Kuwait, Israel) derive over half their construction footprint from imports. Construction materials and energy and water dominate the embodied footprint, with several countries exhibiting high carbon intensity per unit of construction output. Supplier portfolios are often highly concentrated, three to five partners provide most imported embodied CO 2 , exposing MENA construction to external decarbonization and carbon-border policies. The analysis establishes an empirically grounded typology of construction-emission archetypes across the region and highlights differentiated mitigation pathways: industrial decarbonization in system shapers; material efficiency in fast-growing latecomers; green trade governance in import-dependent economies; and low-carbon reconstruction in conflict-affected states.

• semanticscholar https://doi.org/10.1061/jcemd4.coeng-18308first seen 2026-07-30 06:15:03