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Sectoral Impacts of El Niño and Climate Change on India's Industrial Economy: A Case Study on Sustainable Economic Resilience

インド産業経済におけるエルニーニョと気候変動のセクター別影響:持続可能な経済的レジリエンスに関するケーススタディ (AI 翻訳)

Shukla S, Shukla S, Eun KK, Roy M, Vernekar S

Research Squareプレプリント2026-05-15#気候リスク
DOI: 10.20944/preprints202605.1061.v1
原典: https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202605.1061.v1

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本研究は、インドの産業経済に対するエルニーニョの影響を、気候変動の文脈で分析。過去のエルニーニョ傾向や経済データを用い、農業やサプライチェーンへの負の影響と、冷却機器や再生可能エネルギー関連産業の成長機会を指摘。エルニーニョが産業変革の触媒となる可能性を示唆。

English

This study analyzes the impact of El Niño on India's industrial economy under climate change, using historical data. It finds negative effects on agriculture and supply chains, while identifying growth in cooling appliances, irrigation tech, and renewable energy backup systems. El Niño is framed as a catalyst for industrial transformation.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

インドは日本の重要な投資先であり、気候変動によるサプライチェーンリスクは日本企業にも影響を与える。本論文は、適応戦略や再生可能エネルギー需要の増加に関する示唆を提供する。

In the global GX context

This paper adds to the global understanding of climate risks in emerging economies, particularly the dual role of El Niño as a risk and opportunity. It complements the TCFD and ISSB frameworks by illustrating sectoral vulnerability and adaptation pathways in a major developing economy.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Climate economists and adaptation researchers can use this case to explore sectoral resilience in emerging markets.

🏢実務担当者:Corporate strategists in India can identify growth sectors (cooling, irrigation, renewables) during El Niño years.

🏛政策担当者:Indian policymakers can assess adaptive industrial policies to mitigate El Niño impacts.

📄 Abstract(原文)

This study examines the implications of El Niño on the Indian industrial economy in the context of climate change, with a focus on sectoral risks, economic disruptions, and emerging growth opportunities. The study adopts a qualitative and analytical approach using historical El Niño trends, secondary economic data, sectoral performance analysis, and climate-related industrial indicators to evaluate the impact on major industries in India. The findings indicate that El Niño negatively affects agriculture, commodity supply chains, and food inflation due to weak monsoon conditions and rising temperatures. However, industries related to cooling appliances, irrigation and water technologies, renewable energy backup systems, healthcare, and consumer durables show strong growth potential during El Niño years. Climate change is further accelerating the demand for climate-resilient infrastructure and adaptive industrial strategies. This study provides an integrated perspective linking climate phenomena with industrial economics in India. It highlights how El Niño acts not only as an environmental risk but also as a catalyst for industrial transformation, investment opportunities, and climate-resilient economic development.

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