Energy System Uncertainty Catalog

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:エネルギーシステムモデリングにおける不確実性の分類とパラメータ範囲の参考として有用。

🏢実務担当者:自社のエネルギー計画や再エネ導入検討における不確実性評価の枠組みとして活用可能。

🏛政策担当者:エネルギー政策のシナリオ分析における不確実性の考慮方法の参考となる。

Energy System Uncertainty Catalog A structured catalog of uncertainties for energy-system modelling, covering  parametric, structural, and temporal uncertainties across renewable energy, heat, bioenergy, Power-to-X/hydrogen, storage, imports, grid infrastructure, and demand sectors. The catalog is designed to support uncertainty analysis, sensitivity analysis, scenario development, and model robustness assessment in integrated energy-system models. Overview Energy-system models are affected by multiple sources of uncertainty, including uncertain technology costs and potentials, modelling assumptions, system constraints, demand evolution, and weather-dependent time series. However, these uncertainties are often treated inconsistently across studies. This repository provides a structured and traceable catalog of relevant uncertainty parameters that can be used to systematically identify and characterize uncertainty in energy-system models. The catalog distinguishes between three main uncertainty classes: Parametric uncertainty — uncertainty in numerical model inputs such as investment costs, technology efficiencies, capacities, potentials, and technical parameters. Structural uncertainty — uncertainty arising from modelling choices, system representation, constraints, optimization assumptions, and technology inclusion/exclusion. Temporal uncertainty — uncertainty associated with weather years, demand profiles, time series, and other time-dependent model inputs. Catalog Structure The main catalog is provided as an Excel workbook: Uncertainty Catalog.xlsx The workbook contains the following sheets: Main Provides an overview of the uncertainty classification and technology categories used throughout the catalog. Parametric Contains numerical model parameters and their associated uncertainty ranges. Each parameter includes information such as: Field Description ID Unique uncertainty identifier Parameter Parameter name Technology Category Relevant technology or sector Model Component Specific model component Sector Electricity, heat, gas, etc. Unit Parameter unit Baseline Reference value Lower Bound Lower uncertainty boundary Upper Bound Upper uncertainty boundary Uncertainty Type Epistemic, aleatory, or mixed Reference Plot Location of supporting reference data Source / Reference Literature and data sources Justification Rationale for the selected uncertainty range Description Interpretation of the parameter Parameter Name in Model Corresponding model variable Structural Contains uncertainties associated with the formulation and structure of the energy-system model. Examples include: Temporal resolution CO₂ constraints Grid losses Storage operating assumptions Optimization approach Penalty costs Technology inclusion/exclusion Alternative system configurations Temporal Contains uncertainties related to time-dependent inputs and scenarios, including: Wind generation profiles Rooftop PV profiles Open-field PV profiles Solar-thermal generation Electricity demand Heat demand Gas demand The catalog distinguishes between aleatory uncertainty , such as interannual weather variability, and mixed uncertainty , where both variability and modelling assumptions contribute. Sources Contains the literature and other sources used to derive or justify the uncertainty ranges. Reference plot Contains the reference information used to derive selected numerical uncertainty ranges for technology parameters.

• Zenodo https://zenodo.org/records/21931004first seen 2026-08-15 04:24:15 · last seen 2026-08-16 04:27:17