ETS Price Signal in the Power Sector: Evidence on Decarbonisation and Policy Overlap
電力部門におけるETS価格シグナル：脱炭素化と政策重複の実証 (AI 翻訳)
Giacomo Di Foggia, Massimo Beccarello, Bakary Jammeh
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、欧州排出権取引制度（EU ETS）が電力部門の再生可能エネルギー導入に与える影響を分析。パネル計量分析、127社の企業調査、8か国の限界レント推定を用いた結果、公共支援策が再エネ容量拡大の主要因であり、EUA価格の直接効果は限定的。ETSは主に卸電力価格形成を通じて低炭素技術にレントをもたらすが、間接費用補償の規制係数と市場通過率には大きな乖離があることを示した。
English
This paper examines the European ETS's effect on renewable energy deployment in the power sector. Using panel econometrics, a firm survey, and hourly market data, it finds that public support mechanisms, not the EUA price, drive renewable capacity expansion. The ETS operates mainly through wholesale price transmission and revenue redistribution, with significant divergence between regulatory CO2 factors for indirect cost compensation and market pass-through rates.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本でも炭素価格制度の導入が検討される中、本論文はETSが電力市場で再エネ導入に与える直接効果の限界と、間接費用補償の設計上の課題を示唆。日本における排出量取引制度や炭素調整措置の設計に示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This paper contributes to global discourse on carbon pricing effectiveness by disentangling the direct and indirect channels through which emissions trading influences renewable deployment. Its findings on regulatory-market divergence for indirect cost compensation are valuable for jurisdictions like the EU, UK, and others designing carbon border adjustments or cost compensation schemes.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:This paper offers robust empirical evidence on the mechanisms of ETS impact in electricity markets, relevant for future studies on carbon pricing and policy interaction.
🏢実務担当者:Corporate sustainability teams in the power sector should note that EUA price alone may not drive renewable investment decisions; support schemes remain key.
🏛政策担当者:Regulators should consider that ETS's primary effect is on wholesale prices and cost pass-through, and design compensation mechanisms accordingly; observed regulatory-to-market ratios vary widely across countries.
📄 Abstract（原文）
The energy transition requires substantial investments in renewable energy sources and in policy tools that effectively guide market participants' decisions. We examine whether the European Emissions Trading System has effectively driven renewable energy deployment in the power sector. Combining panel econometric analysis of installed renewable capacity across European Member States, a cross-country survey of 127 firms in six EU ETS countries, and an hourly, market-based estimation of inframarginal rents across a panel of eight Member States, we find that public support mechanisms consistently drive renewable-capacity expansion. The EU Allowance price does not exhibit a significant direct effect on renewable deployment after controlling for structural and market variables. In electricity markets, the ETS primarily operates through mechanisms that shape wholesale electricity prices and carbon-cost pass-through, generating persistent inframarginal revenues for low-carbon technologies through marginal price formation. A comparison between regulatory CO₂ factors used for indirect ETS cost compensation and observed market-based pass-through indicators reveals materially divergent magnitudes across Member States, with regulatory-to-observed ratios ranging from 1.2x in Italy to 46.2x in Sweden. The evidence suggests that, in European electricity markets, the ETS currently operates more directly as a wholesale-price transmission and revenue-redistribution mechanism than as an autonomous driver of renewable investment deployment.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- crossref https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202606.1184.v1first seen 2026-06-18 06:35:16
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