政策の信認は正式な制度的統合を代替できるか？英国・EU排出量取引制度リンケージ提案の証拠

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:Provides a novel framework and empirical evidence on how policy credibility affects market integration before formal implementation, useful for carbon market and policy implementation research.

🏢実務担当者:Highlights that carbon market participants should monitor policy signals and credibility, as they can drive price convergence and integration even before legal changes.

🏛政策担当者:Suggests that credible policy announcements can shape market behavior early, implying that communication and negotiation stages are critical for effective carbon pricing.

Major institutional reforms rarely influence economic behaviour only when legislation enters into force. Instead, they evolve through prolonged periods of political negotiation, regulatory coordination, and expectation formation during which governments progressively establish the credibility of future institutional arrangements. Existing research on institutional innovation and policy implementation has largely focused on the legal and administrative dimensions of implementation, paying comparatively little attention to whether institutions may begin influencing economic behaviour before they become legally operational. This paper argues that policy implementation also has an economic dimension, whereby credible policy commitments reshape market expectations and behaviour prior to formal implementation. We define this process as anticipatory economic implementation: the stage in which credible institutional commitments reshape expectations and behaviour before formal legal implementation is complete. We examine this proposition using the proposed linkage between the United Kingdom and European Union Emissions Trading Systems (UK ETS and EU ETS), which provides a natural experiment separating changing institutional expectations from unchanged legal institutions. Following Brexit, successive political negotiations and joint policy announcements increased expectations of future market linkage while the two emissions trading systems remained legally independent. Using daily carbon futures prices from 2024 to 2026, we evaluate the evolution of market behaviour through structural-break analysis, rolling dependence measures, cointegration, vector error-correction models, price-discovery decomposition, and event-study analysis. We show that credible policy commitments reshape market behaviour before formal institutional implementation. Markets therefore provide observable evidence that implementation begins during the expectation-formation stage rather than only when legislation becomes legally effective. In contrast, geopolitical shocks produced comparatively temporary pricing effects with little evidence of persistent changes in market integration. The paper contributes by showing that institutions can begin shaping economic behaviour through regulatory credibility before formal implementation occurs, suggesting that policy implementation should be understood as both a legal process and an anticipatory economic process driven by expectations.

• openaire https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.7081563first seen 2026-09-01 04:50:50 · last seen 2026-09-21 04:26:51