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ブラジルにおける持続可能な航空燃料生産のためのサトウキビ・トウモロコシ・アガベバイオリファイナリーの多期間最適化

Multi-period Optimization of Sugarcane, Corn, and Agave Biorefineries for Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production in Brazil (原題)

Jorge Eduardo Infante Cuan, V. Fernandes Garcia, L. Botelho Mesquita, G. Oliveira, R. Palacios, A. Viana Ensinas

ETA Florence📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-10-07#エネルギー転換経営インパクト: 調達リスク対象セクター: transport
DOI: 10.5071/34theubce2026-5co.1.2
原典: https://doi.org/10.5071/34theubce2026-5co.1.2

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

ブラジルでサトウキビ・トウモロコシ・アガベ由来エタノールを用いたATJ経路のSAF生産を、多期間MILPで技術・経済・環境評価した研究。NPV最大化の最適化により年8.20MtのSAFと副産物を生産し、最低販売価格0.947USD/Lは文献範囲の低水準に位置する。年間34.36MtCO2eを排出しつつ93.58MtCO2eを回避、正味59.22MtCO2eの削減はブラジル2035年目標の約5.6〜7.0%に相当する。

English

A multi-period MILP model assesses the techno-economic and environmental feasibility of SAF via the alcohol-to-jet route in Brazil using sugarcane, corn, and agave ethanol. The optimized system yields 8.20 Mt SAF/year with a minimum selling price of 0.947 USD/L, at the low end of literature values. It emits 34.36 MtCO2e/year while avoiding 93.58 MtCO2e/year, a net reduction of 59.22 MtCO2e/year—roughly 5.6–7.0% of Brazil's projected 2035 emissions.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本ではSAFの国産供給・輸入調達と2030年混合義務の議論が進む中、大規模ATJ経路のコスト・GHG収支を定量化した本知見は、調達戦略や政策目標設計の参照値として有用。

In the global GX context

As ICAO CORSIA and national SAF mandates tighten, this study offers a transparent, optimization-based benchmark for ATJ cost and GHG performance in a major biofuel-producing economy, informing global SAF supply-chain and transition-finance discussions.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:多期間MILPでSAF経路の経済性とGHG収支を統合評価する手法の実例として参照できる。

🏢実務担当者:SAF調達・投資判断におけるコスト水準と原料供給制約の現実的目安を得られる。

🏛政策担当者:SAF大規模導入が国家排出目標に寄与しうる規模感と土地利用上の論点を把握できる。

📄 Abstract（原文）

The decarbonization of the aviation sector represents one of the most significant challenges in the global energy transition due to its dependence on high energy-density liquid fuels and limited electrification alternatives. This study develops a multi-period mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model to evaluate the technical, economic, and environmental feasibility of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production via the alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) route in Brazil, using ethanol derived from sugarcane, corn, and agave. The model integrates mass and energy balances, regional logistics, hydrogen supply alternatives, capital and operating costs, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions within a unified optimization framework aimed at maximizing net present value (NPV). The optimized system produces 8.20 Mt of SAF annually alongside bioethanol, gasoline, diesel, biomethane, and other co-products, requiring substantial biomass inputs exceeding 15 million hectares of cultivated land. The calculated minimum selling price (MSP) of 0.947 USD/L is positioned at the lower end of the range reported in the literature (0.87–2.74 USD/L), indicating competitive economic performance relative to other feedstocks and technological pathways. Environmentally, the system emits 34.36 MtCO2e/year but avoids 93.58 MtCO2e/year, resulting in a net reduction of 59.22 MtCO2e/year. Transportation emissions represent only 0.31% of total emissions. When contextualized within Brazil’s 2035 climate targets (0.85–1.05 GtCO2e/year), the net mitigation achieved corresponds to approximately 5.6–7.0% of the projected national emissions level. These results suggest that large-scale SAF deployment via integrated ATJ pathways could play a substantial role in supporting national decarbonization strategies, although biomass demand and land-use implications remain critical considerations.

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