Empirical Stress Test of the Merit‑Order Mechanism Under Extreme Price Shocks: A Unit‑Level Analysis of Coal, Lignite, and Gas Units in Poland during the European Energy Crisis
極端な価格ショック下におけるメリットオーダー機構の実証的ストレステスト：欧州エネルギー危機中のポーランドの石炭・褐炭・ガスユニットのユニットレベル分析 (AI 翻訳)
Bartosz Sobik
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
2021-2023年の欧州エネルギー危機下で、ポーランドの石炭・褐炭・ガス火力ユニットの短期限界費用（SRMC）を分解し、メリットオーダーの変動を分析。ガス価格高騰でCCGTが右方シフトし、老朽石炭が高コスト尾部に残ることを実証。感度分析で技術別の燃料・炭素コスト依存性を明らかにし、段階的廃止の経済的順序に示唆を与える。
English
This paper empirically analyzes the merit-order dynamics of Polish coal, lignite, and gas units during the 2021-2023 European energy crisis. It decomposes short-run marginal costs into fuel, transport, and EU ETS components, showing that gas price spikes shifted CCGT units rightward while old coal units anchored the high-cost tail. Sensitivity analysis reveals technology-specific cost drivers, informing economically coherent phase-out sequencing and policy on marginal pricing and fossil exposure.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本の電力市場でも、燃料価格高騰時の限界価格形成と火力のメリットオーダー変動は重要な論点。本分析の方法論は、日本の卸電力市場や容量市場の設計、火力の段階的廃止計画に示唆を与える。特に、EU ETS相当の炭素価格導入や、再生可能エネルギー拡大時の火力の役割を検討する際に参考になる。
In the global GX context
This paper contributes to the global debate on electricity market design under decarbonization, providing empirical evidence on how fossil-fuel price shocks transmit through marginal pricing. It supports the European consensus on maintaining marginal pricing while reducing fossil exposure through long-term contracts and low-carbon flexibility. The methodology is replicable for other markets, informing transition strategies and capacity mechanisms.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a replicable unit-level SRMC model and empirical evidence on merit-order dynamics under extreme price shocks, useful for electricity market and energy transition research.
🏢実務担当者:Offers insights for utilities and grid operators on cost structures and phase-out sequencing, aiding in asset management and investment decisions.
🏛政策担当者:Informs policy on marginal pricing, capacity mechanisms, and phase-out sequencing, aligning with EU decarbonization goals.
📄 Abstract（原文）
European electricity markets experienced an exceptional stress test in 2021–2023, raising renewed questions about how marginal pricing and the merit‑order mechanism perform under extreme fuel and carbon price shocks. This paper provides a unit‑level empirical assessment of these dynamics for Poland, an electricity system still dominated by coal, with a smaller but growing Combined-Cycle Gas Turbines (CCGTs) fleet and rapidly rising renewables. A transparent short‑run marginal cost (SRMC) model for all centrally dispatched hard‑coal, lignite, and gas‑fired units has been constructed and presented annual merit‑order stacks for 2021–2023. The analysis decomposes SRMC into fuel, transport (hard coal), and EU ETS (Emissions Trading System) components to attribute observed reranking to interpretable cost channels rather than aggregate price movements. The results document a clear crisis‑related reshuffling: record gas prices in 2022 pushed CCGT units markedly rightwards, while the highest‑cost tail remained anchored in the oldest hard‑coal units in all three years. A structured ±25% sensitivity analysis demonstrates robust, technology‑specific exposure profiles: SRMC is fuel‑driven for CCGT, carbon‑driven (EU-ETS) for lignite, and jointly driven by coal and EU ETS costs for hard coal. These results provide a replicable empirical basis for economically coherent phase‑out sequencing and clarify how fossil‑price shocks transmit through marginal pricing to the European electricity market. Policy implications align with the emerging European consensus: maintain marginal pricing for dispatch efficiency, while reducing exposure to fossil‑driven marginality through long‑term contracting, targeted adequacy mechanisms, and accelerated deployment of low‑carbon flexibility
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- semanticscholar https://doi.org/10.5547/2160-5890.15.2.bsobfirst seen 2026-08-02 06:15:48
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