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構造的マクロプルーデンス政策が気候移行リスクに与える相乗効果

Synergistic impact of structural macroprudential policies on climate transition risks (原題)

Shanhua Zhang, Hao Jin, Ying Fan

Energy and climate management.📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-08-20#気候金融Origin: CN経営インパクト: 資金調達対象セクター: finance
DOI: 10.26599/ecm.2026.9400038
原典: https://doi.org/10.26599/ecm.2026.9400038
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🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本論文は、環境動学的確率的一般均衡（E-DSGE）モデルを用いて、炭素税政策がマクロ経済と金融安定性に与える影響（移行リスク）を評価し、差別化資本十分性比率（CAR）政策の緩和効果を検証。炭素税は排出削減に有効だが銀行の純資産に打撃を与え、金融摩擦がリスクを増幅する。CAR政策との併用が移行リスクを軽減しつつ排出削減を達成できることを示す。

English

This paper uses an environmental dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (E-DSGE) model to evaluate the impact of carbon tax policies on the macroeconomy and financial stability (transition risks), and examines the mitigating effect of differentiated capital adequacy ratio (CAR) policies. Carbon taxes effectively reduce emissions but shock banks' net assets, with financial frictions amplifying risks. Combining carbon taxes with CAR policies can achieve emission reduction targets while mitigating transition risks.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

中国の「ダブルカーボン」目標（2030年ピーク、2060年カーボンニュートラル）を背景に、気候政策と金融安定性の両立を考察。日本の金融庁や日銀が気候変動対応を進める中、マクロプルーデンス政策の設計に示唆を与える。

In the global GX context

This paper contributes to the global discourse on climate transition risk and financial stability, particularly relevant for central banks and regulators implementing climate stress tests and prudential measures. The E-DSGE framework offers a rigorous approach to evaluating policy synergies, informing ISSB-aligned disclosure and transition finance frameworks.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Provides a rigorous E-DSGE framework for analyzing climate transition risk and macroprudential policy interactions.

🏢実務担当者:Highlights the importance of capital adequacy requirements in managing climate-related financial risks, useful for risk management and disclosure.

🏛政策担当者:Offers evidence that combining carbon taxes with differentiated CAR policies can mitigate transition risks while achieving emission targets.

📄 Abstract（原文）

Abstract Central banks of all countries are paying attention to how they can achieve the temperature control goal of the Paris Agreement through climate governance policies while alleviating the climate transition risks arising from such policies. The “dual carbon” goals (carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060) proposed by China have set higher requirements for current climate policies and may necessitate more ambitious measures; however, the transition risks associated with these goals cannot be overlooked. This paper constructs an environmental dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (E-DSGE) model incorporating pollution externalities, financial frictions in the banking sector and the differentiated capital adequacy ratio (CAR) requirement policy to evaluate the impact of carbon tax policies on the macroeconomy and financial stability—the so-called “transition risks”. It also discusses the effectiveness of the differentiated CAR requirement policy in mitigating such risks. The findings are as follows: (1) carbon tax policies have a significant effect on emission reduction and promote green transformation, but they cause a significant shock on banks’ net assets, threatening financial stability and generating transition risks; (2) financial frictions, by restricting banks’ loanable funds, affect capital inputs in the production sector, affect capital goods prices and increase losses in banks’ net assets, thereby amplifying transition risks; and (3) carbon tax policies combined with the differentiated CAR requirement policy can not only achieve emission reduction targets but also mitigate the transition risks caused by carbon taxes by reducing banks’ risk exposure.

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