中国における都市エネルギーピーク：時期・持続性・リバウンドリスク・地域異質性

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:ピーク判定の持続性・閾値感度を扱う実証手法として、地域別エネルギー転換研究の設計に活用できる。

🏢実務担当者:地域別のエネルギー需要動向を把握し、拠点立地や調達リスク評価の長期シナリオに反映できる。

🏛政策担当者:歴史的最大値のみでピーク到達と判断せず、持続性とリバウンドリスクを考慮した地域別政策評価の必要性を示す。

Introduction Determining whether urban energy demand has entered a persistent post-peak phase is important for assessing China’s energy transition. A historical maximum alone, however, does not establish a durable turning point because energy consumption may subsequently rebound or remain close to its previous peak. Methods Using a balanced panel of 336 Chinese prefecture-level cities from 2000 to 2022, this study develops a diagnostic framework that distinguishes historical maxima from effective peaks and evaluates post-peak persistence, rebound risk, transition status, and trend changes. The baseline definition classifies an effective peak as an earlier historical maximum followed by an average energy-consumption level over the final three years that is at least 5% below that maximum. The classification is further assessed using alternative thresholds, persistence windows, moving-average specifications, a pre-pandemic endpoint, and trend-break analysis. Results Of the 336 cities, 202 recorded their historical maximum in 2022, while 94 satisfy the baseline effective-peak criterion and 88 are classified as stable post-peak. Eastern cities show a substantially higher effective-peak share than central, western, and northeastern cities. The pre-pandemic analysis indicates that peak classification is sensitive to the sample endpoint, while trend-break results show that slower energy-demand growth is considerably more common than an absolute reversal in energy consumption. A small group of cities also exhibits rebound risk after an earlier decline. Discussion These findings show that a historical maximum is insufficient to establish a persistent post-peak transition and that Chinese cities remain at markedly different stages of energy-demand adjustment. The proposed framework is diagnostic rather than causal and provides a consistent basis for distinguishing stable post-peak transitions from temporary declines and rebound-prone trajectories. The results highlight the importance of accounting for persistence and regional heterogeneity when assessing urban energy-transition progress.

• openalex https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2026.1963897first seen 2026-10-18 04:54:18