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Least-Cost Electrification Pathways for Universal Electricity Access in Rwanda: An OnSSET Modelling Analysis

ルワンダにおける普遍的電力アクセスのための最小コスト電化経路：OnSSETモデリング分析 (AI 翻訳)

Jovine NSEKANABANGA

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-07-23#エネルギー転換Origin: Global対象セクター: power
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.21510646
原典: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21510646

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本研究は、ルワンダの2030年までの普遍的電力アクセス達成に向け、OnSSETを用いて最小コスト電化経路を評価した。2つのシナリオ（最小コスト、強制グリッド）を比較し、約228万の新規接続、309MWの追加発電容量、約15.9億米ドルの投資が必要と推定。最小コストシナリオは、グリッド強化と太陽光PVの組み合わせで経済効率が高く、低炭素排出を実現する。地理空間計画の重要性を示す。

English

This study uses OnSSET to evaluate least-cost electrification pathways for Rwanda's universal electricity access by 2030. Comparing least-cost and forced-grid scenarios, it estimates 2.28 million new connections, 309 MW of additional capacity, and $1.59 billion investment. The least-cost scenario, combining grid densification with solar PV, offers greater economic efficiency and low emissions, highlighting the value of geospatial planning.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本のGX文脈では、途上国向けの電化計画手法として参考になる。日本の再生可能エネルギー導入やODA戦略において、地理空間最適化の活用が示唆される。

In the global GX context

This paper contributes to global electrification planning literature, offering a replicable methodology for integrating geospatial analysis into national energy strategies. It aligns with SDG7 and low-carbon transition goals, providing insights for developing countries and international financiers.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Provides a practical application of OnSSET for least-cost electrification planning, useful for energy systems modeling research.

🏢実務担当者:Offers a framework for utilities and planners to optimize grid and off-grid investments for universal access.

🏛政策担当者:Demonstrates the value of geospatial planning in achieving universal electrification cost-effectively, informing policy and investment decisions.

📄 Abstract（原文）

Achieving universal electricity access by 2030 is a key objective of Rwanda's national development agenda. This study applies the Open-Source Spatial Electrification Tool (OnSSET) to evaluate least-cost electrification pathways under two scenarios: a Least-Cost Scenario and a Forced-Grid Scenario. Using 2024 geospatial, demographic, and electricity infrastructure data, the analysis estimates technology choices, investment requirements, generation capacity, and carbon emissions needed to achieve universal access. The results show that both scenarios can provide universal electricity access with approximately 2.28 million new connections, 309 MW of additional generation capacity, investments of about USD 1.59 billion, and very low carbon emissions. However, the Least-Cost Scenario is the preferred option, combining grid densification with stand-alone solar photovoltaic (PV) systems to achieve greater economic efficiency while minimizing reliance on mini-grids. The findings highlight the importance of integrating geospatial least-cost planning into national electrification strategies to support cost-effective investment decisions and Rwanda's transition toward a sustainable, low-carbon energy system.

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