Distributional Impacts of 1.5 °C Overshoot Pathways: Food, Energy, and the Limits of Carbon Tax Revenue Recycling
Jiarui Zhong, Franziska Piontek, Benjamin Bodirsky, David Chen, Leonard Missbach, Robin Hasse, Leon Merfort, Tabea Dorndorf, Anne Merfort, Benjamin Peeters, Johannes Koch, Elmar Kriegler
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
一時的な気温超過を伴う1.5℃経路の分配影響を分析。低超過と高超過の経路を比較し、低超過は早期に不平等を拡大し高止まりするのに対し、高超過は影響を遅らせるが後年急増することを示した。エネルギー価格上昇は一時的だが、食料価格圧力は持続的である。気候基金型メカニズムで後年の財政負担を軽減できるが、大規模な国際移転が必要。
English
This study analyzes the distributional impacts of 1.5°C overshoot pathways, comparing low- and high-overshoot scenarios. Low overshoot raises inequality earlier and keeps it elevated, while high overshoot delays impacts but leads to sharper increases later. Energy price impacts are transient, but food price pressures persist. A climate fund mechanism can ease late-century fiscal stress but requires substantial international transfers.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本ではカーボンプライシング導入が議論されており、本論文の分配効果分析は、炭素税収入の還元設計や公正な移行政策の検討に示唆を与える。特に食料価格への影響や気候基金のタイミングは、日本のエネルギー・農業政策と関連する。
In the global GX context
Globally, with many jurisdictions implementing carbon pricing, this paper offers a rigorous framework to assess distributional outcomes of different overshoot pathways and revenue recycling designs, relevant for climate policy design under the Paris Agreement and for compensation mechanisms in transition finance.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:The decile-level framework for pathway-driven price impacts is a methodological contribution for distributional analysis in climate policy modeling.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the fiscal and political feasibility challenges of overshoot governance, especially the need for intertemporal and international compensation design.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Abstract Limiting warming to 1.5 °C increasingly depends on pathways with temporary temperature overshoot and large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR), yet their distributional implications remain poorly understood. We develop a within-region, decile-level framework that maps pathway-driven price changes to heterogeneous consumption structures to quantify distributional outcomes under low- (LO) and high-overshoot (HO) pathways. Comparing scenarios with the same end-of-century temperature target, we show that LO raises inequality earlier and keeps it elevated, whereas HO delays impacts but leads to a sharper increase in later decades. This shift coincides with rising CDR financing needs, constraining fiscal space for redistribution, particularly under HO. Energy price increases drive early impacts but are transient, while food price pressures are more persistent and increasingly important over time. A climate-fund-type mechanism can ease late-century financing stress, but requires substantial intertemporal and international transfers. Overshoot governance therefore depends not only on technological feasibility, but also on compensation design, fiscal timing, and political feasibility.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- crossref https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9892298/v1first seen 2026-06-16 05:41:33
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