Challenges and opportunities of the full phase-out of fossil fuels under the 1.5 °C goal
1.5℃目標達成に向けた化石燃料完全廃止の課題と機会 (AI 翻訳)
Shotaro Mori, Siddharth Joshi, Volker Krey, Ken Oshiro, Oliver Fricko, Takuya Hara, Shinichiro Fujimori
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
COP28で合意された化石燃料からの移行を受け、本論文は2つの全球エネルギーモデルを用いて、化石燃料を2050年までに完全廃止するためのエネルギーシステム変革を分析。従来の費用対効果重視の1.5℃経路と比較して、発電量が1.6〜1.8倍増加し、投資が最大34%増加することを示した。一方で、二酸化炭素除去への依存低減や気温超過後の回復可能性向上といった機会も明らかになった。
English
This study uses two global energy system models to explore pathways to fully phase out fossil fuels by 2050 under the 1.5°C goal. Compared to cost-effective 1.5°C pathways, the phase-out pathway requires a 1.6-1.8-fold increase in power generation and up to 34% higher energy supply investments, but reduces reliance on carbon dioxide removal and increases the probability of returning to 1.5°C after overshoot.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本の研究機関が参画し、世界全体の化石燃料フェーズアウトを定量分析。日本のGX政策においても、電化の加速や再エネ・水素への投資拡大の必要性を示唆する。
In the global GX context
This paper provides crucial quantitative evidence for the global energy transition discussion following COP28, highlighting the trade-offs between fossil fuel phase-out and carbon dioxide removal. It informs international climate policy and investment strategies.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Energy system modelers can use the scenario results to further explore sectoral impacts and policy designs for fossil fuel phase-out.
🏢実務担当者:Energy planners and investors gain insights on the scale of electrification and renewable deployment needed, informing long-term strategy.
🏛政策担当者:Policymakers should note that full phase-out requires strong determination and accelerated investment, but offers benefits like reduced CDR dependency.
📄 Abstract（原文）
The COP28 decision called for transitioning away from fossil fuels, sparking a growing interest in their full phase-out. However, energy system transformation pathways towards a phase-out of fossil fuels, which may reduce the reliance on carbon dioxide removal to meet the 1.5 °C goal, remain unclear. Here, we employ two global energy system models to explore energy system transformations and the challenges and opportunities associated with attaining a full phase-out of fossil fuels. We found that phasing out fossil fuels by 2050 would require accelerating direct and indirect electrification, involving 1.6-1.8-fold increases in power generation compared to the conventional cost-effective 1.5 °C pathways. This transition from cost-effective to fossil fuel phase-out pathways would increase energy supply investments by up to 34% over this century and require accelerated deployment of solar and wind power, as well as electrolysers. Despite opportunities including lower reliance on carbon dioxide removal and increasing probability of returning to 1.5 °C after temperature overshoot, these additional requirements imply that international society must approach the transition towards zero-fossil energy systems with strong determination.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-72841-7first seen 2026-06-06 04:38:02
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