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炭素価格と企業の投資対応：中国排出権取引制度からの証拠

Carbon Pricing and Corporate Investment Responses: Evidence from China’s Emissions Trading System (原題)

Wenjie Fan, Tingting Yu, Heng Wu

Sustainability📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-08-24#炭素価格Origin: CN経営インパクト: 資金調達対象セクター: cross_sector
DOI: 10.3390/su18178642
原典: https://doi.org/10.3390/su18178642

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

中国の排出権取引制度（ETS）が企業投資に与える因果効果を、2008～2023年の上場企業約5,000社のパネルデータと差分の差法で検証。炭素価格に晒された企業は投資を有意に減少させ、高排出産業や大企業で顕著。収益性低下と金融制約が経路。資本の再配分先は未観測。

English

Using a panel of 5,000 Chinese listed firms (2008-2023) and a difference-in-differences design, this study finds that carbon pricing under China's ETS significantly reduces corporate investment, especially in high-emission sectors and larger firms, operating through lower profitability and tighter financial constraints. The destination of reallocated capital is not observed.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

中国ETSの実証結果は、日本のカーボンプライシング導入検討やGX経済移行債の効果検証に示唆。企業の投資行動変化を踏まえた政策設計や、SSBJ開示における炭素価格シナリオ分析の重要性を裏付ける。

In the global GX context

Provides micro-level evidence on how carbon pricing affects real investment decisions, relevant to global carbon pricing debates and the ISSB's scenario analysis requirements. Highlights heterogeneous effects across firms and sectors, informing policy design for emissions trading systems worldwide.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Provides causal evidence on carbon pricing's investment effects in an emerging economy, useful for comparative policy analysis.

🏢実務担当者:Highlights how carbon pricing can affect investment decisions, informing corporate strategy under emissions trading.

🏛政策担当者:Offers insights into the real economic impacts of ETS, supporting policy design and evaluation.

📄 Abstract（原文）

Carbon pricing has emerged as a central policy tool for addressing climate change and advancing corporate environmental responsibility, yet its impact on firm-level investment and capital allocation remains insufficiently understood, particularly in emerging economies. This study examines whether emissions trading systems (ETS) influence corporate investment behavior and the reallocation of capital, using China as a representative case within the Asia-Pacific region. Employing a panel dataset of 5000 Chinese listed firms (approximately 80,000 firm-year observations) over the 2008–2023 period and a difference-in-differences framework, we identify the causal effect of carbon pricing on corporate investment decisions. The results show that firms exposed to carbon pricing experience a statistically significant reduction in investment following policy implementation. This effect is more pronounced in high-emission industries and operates through declines in profitability and tighter financial conditions. Asset-weighted measures indicate that the adjustment is concentrated among larger firms, and industry-level analysis shows that reductions are disproportionately driven by high-emission sectors. This pattern of heterogeneous investment responses is consistent with carbon pricing influencing investment allocation across firms; however, we do not directly observe the subsequent destination of capital or whether reduced investment in exposed firms is transferred toward cleaner activities. These findings provide new micro-level evidence that carbon markets shape corporate environmental management and real economic decisions by altering firm incentives, cost structures, and expectations. The study contributes to the literature by linking environmental policy tools to firm-level investment behavior and offers practical insights for policymakers and managers navigating the low-carbon transition in emerging economies.

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