地域電力グループ間における太陽光発電評価の気候・経済ミスマッチ

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🔬研究者:回避排出と財務評価の乖離を定量化する方法論（DCF・炭素削減コスト・モンテカルロ・順位相関）を、地域横断PV評価に応用する枠組みを提供する。

🏢実務担当者:再エネ調達やPV投資の意思決定では、排出削減量とNPV・削減コストを別々に評価し、地域の排出係数と料金構造を併せて確認すべきと示唆する。

🏛政策担当者:炭素削減ポテンシャルと投資収益性が乖離する地域では、追加的な政策支援や市場設計がなければPV導入が進まない可能性を示す。

Photovoltaic (PV) deployment is expanding rapidly, but the climate and economic value of identical generation varies with electricity-system and market conditions. This study examines whether avoided-emission rankings align with project-level financial valuation when physical project characteristics are held constant. A documented 1.101 MWp PV project, with expected annual generation of 1592.6 MWh/year, was assessed counterfactually across seven regional electricity groupings, with Brazil as the reference case. The framework integrates generation-weighted emission factors, avoided-emission accounting, discounted cash flow, carbon-abatement costs, deterministic sensitivity analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, and exploratory Pearson and Spearman correlations with exact permutation inference. To address the physical variability of the reference asset, an auxiliary hourly PV simulation covering ten complete years (2016–2025) was additionally performed using solar irradiance, ambient temperature, and wind-speed data. The modeled annual generation averaged 1472.4 MWh/year, with a coefficient of variation of 1.44%, indicating limited interannual variability over the evaluated decade. Financial indicators were evaluated over a 20-year horizon, whereas lifetime avoided emissions and carbon-abatement costs were assessed over a 25-year technical lifetime. The Arab League presented the highest avoided emissions (1005 tCO2/year; 6.1 times Brazil) but the weakest base-case financial result: a net abatement cost of approximately USD 7/tCO2 and a 70.1% probability of positive NPV. The European Union achieved the highest NPV, a net abatement cost of approximately −USD 255/tCO2, and a 100% probability of positive NPV despite lower mitigation. An inverse association between emission factor and electricity tariff further characterized this mismatch (Spearman’s ρ=−0.786; exact permutation p=0.048). The results show that physical PV production, mitigation potential, and project-level financial valuation represent distinct but complementary dimensions that should be assessed jointly when comparing PV deployment contexts.

• semanticscholar https://doi.org/10.3390/su18179031first seen 2026-09-12 05:47:03 · last seen 2026-09-22 05:15:43