エネルギーシステム転換の社会経済的影響評価：賃金設定メカニズムの含意
Evaluating the socio-economic impacts of the energy system transition: the implications of wage-setting mechanisms (原題)
Andrew G. Ross, Patrizio Lecca, J. Kim Swales
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、ネットゼロ達成に必要なクリーンエネルギー投資の雇用・賃金への影響を評価するため、賃金硬直性やインフレ期待等を組み込んだ統一的な賃金設定フレームワークを動学的CGEモデルとボトムアップ型エネルギー最適化モデルに統合した。固定賃金前提では2045年まで雇用が大幅増となるが、実証的な賃金曲線では増加は限定的、最も制約的なフィリップス曲線ではほぼゼロか一時的減少となる。グリーン投資の雇用配当は控えめであり、固定賃金前提の評価は過大評価のリスクがあると結論づける。
English
This paper develops a unified wage-setting framework—incorporating nominal/real rigidities, money illusion, inflation expectations, and unemployment responsiveness—into a dynamic CGE model linked to a bottom-up energy system optimization model. Fixed-wage assumptions show large employment gains by 2045, but empirically grounded wage curves yield modest gains, and restrictive Phillips curves show near-zero or temporary declines. The employment dividend of green investment is modest, and fixed-wage assessments risk overstating it substantially.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本ではGX推進法や脱炭素投資の雇用創出効果が政策議論の焦点となる中、本論文は雇用配当を過大評価しない実証的賃金設定の重要性を示す。SSBJや有報での人的資本・移行計画開示を検討する日本企業・政策当局にとって、労働市場前提の精緻化は移行リスク評価に直結する。
In the global GX context
Amid global debates on just transition and transition finance, this paper warns that standard IO/CGE fixed-wage closures overstate green employment dividends, urging empirically grounded labour-market specifications. It informs ISSB/CSRD social and workforce disclosure and transition-plan credibility assessments.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:CGE/IOモデルにおける労働市場閉合の感度分析が結果を大きく左右することを示す実証的枠組みを提供する。
🏢実務担当者:脱炭素投資の雇用・賃金影響を自社の移行計画や人的資本開示に反映する際、楽観的前提を避けるべき根拠となる。
🏛政策担当者:グリーン投資の雇用配当を過大評価せず、実証的賃金設定に基づく積極的労働市場政策の必要性を検討すべき。
📄 Abstract（原文）
Achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions requires large-scale investment in clean energy infrastructure, with potentially far-reaching system-wide consequences for employment and wages. Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) and Input-Output (IO) models are widely used to assess these impacts but typically rely on stylised labour market assumptions that can substantially distort projections. This paper addresses that gap by developing a unified analytical wage-setting framework. This framework encompasses nominal and real wage rigidities, money illusion, inflation expectations, and unemployment responsiveness. These factors are integrated into a dynamic CGE model linked to a bottom-up energy system optimisation model. Our results re-emphasise that labour market specification is a first-order determinant of potential outcomes. Under fixed-wage assumptions, as used in standard IO analyses, employment rises substantially above baseline by 2045 (due to the large-scale investments). However, using our preferred, empirically grounded wage curve specification, the gain is more modest. Under the most restrictive Phillips curve specification, gains are near-zero, and employment can temporarily decline during the peak investment period. Similarly, endogenous GDP, wages, and household consumption impacts vary across scenarios. These contrasting results demand fundamentally different policy responses. Optimistic fixed-wage projections may appear to justify passive policy, while empirically grounded specifications point to the potential need for active labour market intervention. We conclude that the employment dividend of green investment is modest, that assessments relying on fixed-wage assumptions risk overstating it substantially, and that impact assessment and policies should therefore be based on empirically grounded wage-setting specifications rather than the optimistic closures common in current practice.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2026.104946first seen 2026-09-18 04:38:29
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