Research on Spillover Effects of Climate Policy Uncertainty on Energy and Agricultural Product Markets from a Time-Frequency Perspective
時間周波数視点からの気候政策不確実性のエネルギー・農産物市場への波及効果に関する研究 (AI 翻訳)
Zhi Zhang, Jiayao Liu, X G Wang, Shanjun Mao, Liming Chen
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
2008年から2025年の月次データを用いて、気候政策不確実性（CPU）がエネルギー・農産物市場に与える波及効果を時間・周波数両面から分析。バイオエネルギー関連商品（大豆、トウモロコシ）への影響が強く、CPUは短期では影響を受けるが中期・長期では波及源となることが示された。
English
Using monthly data from 2008 to 2025, this study examines spillover effects of climate policy uncertainty (CPU) on energy and agricultural markets from time-frequency perspectives. CPU shows stronger transmission to bioenergy-related commodities (soybeans, corn). CPU is a net receiver in the short run but shifts to net transmitter over the medium to long term, suggesting lagged transmission patterns.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
本論文は中国の研究グループによるもので、日本の気候政策文脈への直接的な関連性は低いが、政策不確実性が食料・エネルギー安全保障に与える影響を定量的に示しており、日本の政策立案者や投資家にとって参考となる洞察を含む。
In the global GX context
This paper contributes to the global understanding of climate policy uncertainty as a cross-market risk factor, particularly for energy and agricultural commodities. The time-frequency approach offers nuanced insights for regulators and investors in climate-sensitive sectors, complementing TCFD/ISSB risk disclosure frameworks.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Researchers studying climate policy uncertainty and its market spillovers will find the time-frequency and network methodologies applicable to other regions and time periods.
🏢実務担当者:Corporate sustainability teams can use these findings to anticipate how climate policy uncertainty might affect commodity price volatility and supply chain risk.
🏛政策担当者:Policymakers can leverage the evidence that transparent and stable climate policy reduces cross-market risk, supporting energy and food security.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Amid the ongoing transformation of global climate governance, climate policy uncertainty has emerged as an increasingly important factor influencing both energy and agricultural commodity markets, with direct implications for energy and food security. Using monthly data from 2008 to 2025, this study applies the TVP-VAR-DY and TVP-VAR-BK frameworks, together with complex network analysis, to investigate spillover dynamics among climate policy uncertainty, energy, and agricultural markets from both time-varying and frequency-based perspectives. The results show that spillover effects evolve substantially over time and become more pronounced during periods of major external shocks, particularly under the influence of short-run factors. Notably, the transmission effect of climate policy uncertainty is stronger for bioenergy-related agricultural commodities, especially soybeans and corn. While the agricultural market exhibits strong internal connectedness, cross-market risk transmission is heterogeneous across commodities, with corn remaining a relatively stable net transmitter of risk. By contrast, crude oil generally acts as a net receiver, whereas climate policy uncertainty behaves as a net receiver in the short run but gradually shifts into a net transmitter over the medium and long term, suggesting a lagged transmission pattern. Robustness checks based on alternative lag lengths, forecast horizons, and CPU proxies confirm that the main connectedness structure is stable and not driven by specific parameter choices. These findings provide useful evidence for policymakers seeking to improve the stability and transparency of climate policy and mitigate cross-market risk, while also offering practical guidance for investors in portfolio allocation and hedging against policy-induced volatility.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture16101019first seen 2026-05-17 07:12:43 · last seen 2026-06-16 04:52:54
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