カナダにおける電気自動車移行の政策・貿易・世論動学

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:政策・貿易・世論の相互作用を組み込んだEV普及モデルの実証例として参考になる。

🏢実務担当者:自動車メーカーや充電インフラ企業は、政策シナリオ別の普及予測を市場戦略に活用できる。

🏛政策担当者:ZEV義務化と補助金・貿易政策の組み合わせが目標達成に不可欠であることを示唆。

Abstract Road transportation accounts for ≈ 12.7 % GHG emissions and ≈ 85 % of transportation-related GHG in Canada, making passenger vehicle electrification central to decarbonization. In February 2026, the federal government revised its zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate from 100% by 2035 to sales targets of 75% by 2035 and 90% by 2040, while reinstating purchase incentives through 2031. A bilateral trade agreement with China seeks to expand access to lower-cost BEVs. We employ a nonlinear opinion dynamics framework to project BEV adoption under three policy scenarios ( Mandate+Trade+Rebates , Trade+Rebates , and No Policy ) across British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec from 2026–40. The model integrates external market factors: vehicle affordability ( γ P ), model availability ( γ A ), and charging infrastructure ( γ E ), with opinion dynamics governed by committed adopters ( C ) and a peer influence scaling exponent ( α ). Our projections indicate that trade access and purchase incentives alone are insufficient to achieve federal targets. Near-complete BEV dominance ( > 95 % ) emerges only under Mandate+Trade+Rebates in BC and Quebec by 2040. The Trade+Rebates scenario yields 2040 ZEV shares of 74 % ± 17 % in BC, 72 % ± 18 % in Quebec, and 55 % ± 18 % in Ontario, falling short of the 90% benchmark. Under No Policy , shares reach only 43 % ± 14 % , 45 % ± 13 % , and 24 %

• openalex https://doi.org/10.1088/2634-4505/aea89bfirst seen 2026-10-04 04:41:08