東アジアにおける将来の太陽光発電ポテンシャルに及ぼす極端高温の影響
Impact of extremely high temperature on future photovoltaic power potential over East Asia (原題)
Changyong Park, Ana Juzbasic, Dong-Hyun Cha, Seung-Ki Min, Joong-Bae Ahn, Eun-Chul Chang, Young-Hwa Byun, Youngeun Choi
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、地球温暖化に伴う極端高温日が東アジアの太陽光発電ポテンシャル（PVpot）に与える影響を将来予測した。全シナリオ・期間でPVpotは減少し、特に高炭素排出シナリオで減少が大きい。中国北部やモンゴル南部などのPVホットスポットでは最大-7.2%減少し、気温上昇が主因と特定された。
English
This study projects future photovoltaic power potential (PVpot) over East Asia under extremely high temperature days, finding decreases across all scenarios and periods, with larger declines under high-carbon scenarios. PV hotspot areas like northern China and southern Mongolia may see up to -7.2% reduction, driven primarily by rising near-surface air temperature.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本は再エネ導入拡大を進めるが、高温による発電効率低下は運用面で重要。本研究成果は、日本の太陽光発電所の立地選定や長期計画に気候変動リスクを織り込む際の参考となる。
In the global GX context
As global PV deployment grows, understanding climate impacts on generation is critical for energy planning. This study provides regional evidence for East Asia, informing grid integration and renewable energy policy under climate change.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides quantitative projections of PV potential under extreme heat, useful for climate-energy modeling.
🏢実務担当者:Solar plant operators and planners can use these regional projections to assess long-term output risks.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the need to consider climate resilience in renewable energy targets and infrastructure planning.
📄 Abstract（原文）
As global warming intensifies, the frequency and intensity of extremely high temperatures are expected to increase. This will impact the production of photovoltaics (PVs), which are increasingly adopted as an effective alternative to replace fossil fuel-based energy sources and reduce CO2 emissions. Furthermore, extremely high temperature days account for a considerable proportion of days with high PV power potential (PVpot). Therefore, this study investigates changes in PVpot on future extremely high temperature days over East Asia, a region with high greenhouse gas emissions and vulnerability to extreme climatic events. The East Asia-averaged PVpot for extremely high temperature days was estimated to decrease across all scenarios and future periods. The East Asia-averaged PVpot for extremely high temperature days was predicted to decrease more substantially toward the late 21st century, with a larger magnitude of decrease expected under the high-carbon emissions scenario compared to the low-carbon emissions scenario. By the mid-and late 21st century, PVpot for extremely high temperature days was projected to decrease in PV hotspot areas, particularly in the regions of northern China and southern Mongolia, by up to -7.2 %. The signs of PVpot projections vary across sub-regions under summer mean conditions, while on extremely high temperature days, PVpot is consistently expected to decrease in all regions. This suggests that extremely high temperatures further intensify the decrease in PVpot. Moreover, under extremely high-temperature conditions, near-surface air temperature has been identified as the primary driver of projected decreases in PVpot among the climate variables considered; its influence is expected to intensify over time, thereby accelerating PVpot decreases under the high-carbon emissions scenario.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- arXiv https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.04632first seen 2026-09-07 04:10:48 · last seen 2026-09-17 04:10:22
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