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進化的緊張下の北米石炭地域移行:地域多様化に向けたステークホルダー優先事項

North American coal transitions under conditions of evolutionary tension: Stakeholder priorities for regional diversification (原題)

Fitsum S. Weldegiorgis, Kathleen Araujo, Cassie Koerner, Ned Potter

The Extractive Industries and Society📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-08-06#エネルギー転換Origin: US対象セクター: energy
DOI: 10.1016/j.exis.2026.102026
原典: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.exis.2026.102026

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

石炭地域の移行は一様でなく、構造的・制度的要因で分岐する。Q方法論と60人のステークホルダー調査から、環境志向と石炭利用の2つの移行論理を特定し、東ペンシルベニア、ブリティッシュコロンビア南東部、モンタナ南東部の3つの移行アーキタイプを示した。地域の財政依存や経路依存がマクロ政策を不安定化しうることを指摘し、地域能力に即した移行戦略を提言する。

English

Coal region transitions diverge due to structural and institutional factors. Using Q-methodology and 60 stakeholder interviews, the study identifies two transition rationales (environmental orientation and coal utilization) and three archetypes across Eastern Pennsylvania, Southeastern BC, and Southeastern Montana. It argues that fiscal dependence and path dependency can destabilize macro policy, advocating for transition strategies aligned with local capabilities and community agency.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本の石炭依存地域(例:北海道、福岡)やエネルギー転換政策に示唆。地域の財政依存やコミュニティの主体性を考慮した公正な移行(Just Transition)の設計に参考となる。SSBJや有報での気候関連開示が進む中、地域レベルの移行リスク評価にも有用。

In the global GX context

Contributes to global just transition scholarship by showing how regional fiscal and socio-cultural factors shape decarbonization pathways. Relevant for policymakers designing transition strategies under TCFD/ISSB frameworks, emphasizing the need to align national targets with local realities to avoid policy backlash.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Provides a multi-level framework for analyzing regional energy transitions and empirical evidence on stakeholder priorities.

🏢実務担当者:Useful for companies in coal-dependent regions to anticipate transition risks and engage with local stakeholders.

🏛政策担当者:Highlights the importance of fiscal buffering and community agency in designing durable transition policies.

📄 Abstract(原文)

Coal regions face an increasingly uncertain transition landscape as decarbonization priorities, policy volatility, and local fiscal dependencies converge. Rather than following a uniform path, regional transitions diverge along distinct structural and institutional axes. This paper advances a Multi-level Regional Transition Framework to situate how local stakeholders navigate evolutionary tension—forces of economic change and entrenched continuity. Combining Q-methodology and semi-structured interviews with 60 stakeholders across Eastern Pennsylvania, Southeastern British Columbia, and Southeastern Montana, we identify two predominant transition rationales: Environmental Orientation and Coal Utilization . Comparative findings show three distinct transition archetypes: Eastern Pennsylvania : Structural economic diversification supports gradual, post-coal industrial reconfiguration; Southern British Columbia : Stable decarbonization policy supports environmentally oriented diversification, moderated by a policy-export paradox associated with metallurgical coal; and Southeastern Montana: Substantial fiscal and social dependence on coal favors incremental adaptation centered on coal asset preservation. Based on these findings we argue that regional pathways are shaped by four interacting drivers: transition maturity, policy stability, economic buffering (including fiscal reliance), and socio-cultural/perceptual path dependency. We demonstrate that regions are not passive recipients of macro policy. Instead, unbuffered fiscal drag and local path dependencies can spur resistance that aggregates upward, creating recursive feedback loops which actively destabilize macro-level policy continuity. Consequently, durable transition strategies should look beyond targets and align decarbonization with local capabilities, fiscal realities and community agency.

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