経済・エネルギー・気候政策の不確実性が複数のエネルギー転換経路に与える影響

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:政策不確実性が転換経路ごとに異なる効果を持つことを示す実証枠組みとして参照可能。

🏢実務担当者:長期規制の予見可能性が投資回収に効く点を踏まえ、トランジション計画の前提シナリオ設計に活用できる。

🏛政策担当者:気候政策の不確実性低減と規制厳格化の維持が転換促進に有効との示唆を政策設計に反映すべき。

Achieving net‐zero and sustainable energy goals requires policy frameworks resilient to economic, energy and climate policy uncertainty. This study examines how these uncertainties, alongside globalisation, capital intensity and environmental regulatory stringency, shape three energy transition pathways across OECD countries (1991–2020): the shift from dirtier to less‐dirty non‐renewable sources (DLD), the shift from clean‐to‐cleaner renewable sources (CMC), and a comprehensive energy transition index (CET) combining both. Using the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) estimator to address endogeneity and estimate long‐run co‐integrating relationships, the study finds that climate policy uncertainty is associated with DLD but not with CMC and CET, suggesting it redirects rather than accelerates the transitions. World economic and energy‐related uncertainty exert pathway‐specific effects that vary across the three measures. Globalisation and environmental regulatory stringency emerge as robust, positive drivers of all three pathways. Capital intensity supports the CMC and CET pathways but not DLD, suggesting capital‐intensive investment accelerates renewable deployment more than it improves the non‐renewable energy mix. Economic growth shows a similarly divergent effect, reducing the DLD transition while promoting CMC and CET, reflecting its dual role in reinforcing fossil‐fuel infrastructure and financing cleaner alternatives. These findings carry differentiated policy implications: governments should prioritise reducing climate policy uncertainty through stable, long‐term regulatory commitments, sustain environmental regulatory stringency, and pair capital‐intensive investment with targeted incentives to improve the non‐renewable energy mix, since investment alone does not guarantee progress on every margin. The study offers OECD policymakers pathway‐specific guidance for differentiated, rather than one‐size‐fits‐all, energy and climate policy.

• semanticscholar https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1002/sd.71733first seen 2026-10-22 05:29:14 · last seen 2026-11-06 05:22:19