AgentHomeID - 建物ストック変革のエージェントベースモデリング：政策評価とインフラ計画のためのマルチスケールフレームワーク

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:Provides a multi-scale agent-based model that captures owner heterogeneity and spatial dynamics, useful for advancing building stock transformation research.

🏢実務担当者:Offers insights for utilities and grid operators on spatially explicit heat pump adoption and peak load impacts, aiding infrastructure planning.

🏛政策担当者:Demonstrates the importance of owner heterogeneity and policy design (e.g., renewable heating mandates) in achieving building decarbonization targets.

Decarbonising the building sector is central to meeting climate targets, yet existing models rarely capture the interaction between system-level transformation dynamics and heterogeneous individual investment decisions. This work presents AgentHomeID, an agent-based model of building stock evolution in which owner behaviour, techno-economic constraints, and regulatory frameworks are represented explicitly at the level of individual buildings and their owners. The model differentiates owner-occupiers, private landlords, and institutional owners, using willingness-to-pay (WTP) parameters estimated from empirical decision-maker studies, and operates on both representative building archetypes and real building data derived from geographic information systems (GIS). We demonstrate this versatility across three applications. At national scale, scenario analysis for Germany to 2045 shows that removing binding renewable heating requirements substantially raises final energy demand even where envelope refurbishment is unchanged, and that subsidy allocation and investment activity diverge sharply across owner types and income quartiles, with the lowest quartiles persistently underinvesting. At regional scale, bottom-up simulation for a German distribution grid planning region yields spatially concentrated heat pump uptake at NUTS-3 level that differs from aggregated top-down projections in both magnitude and spatial distribution. At urban block level, the same simulations resolve substation-level load heterogeneity and show that integrated system peaks driven by heat pumps, electric vehicles, and photovoltaics do not coincide with individual technology peaks. Across all three scales, owner heterogeneity and local structure materially shape transition pathways, indicating that they should be represented explicitly in models used for policy assessment and infrastructure planning.

• arXiv https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.05763first seen 2026-09-09 03:54:04 · last seen 2026-09-09 04:10:20