再生可能エネルギー投資の経済的実現可能性分析：炭素価格メカニズム下の費用便益モデル
Economic Feasibility Analysis of Renewable Energy Investment: A Cost-Benefit Model under Carbon Pricing Mechanisms (原題)
Junxi Zhuo
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
太陽光・陸上風力・洋上風力の540件のプロジェクトデータ（2019〜2024年、30カ国）を用い、炭素価格下での再エネ投資の経済性を費用便益モデルで評価。炭素価格1USD/tCO2eの上昇はプロジェクトNPVを4.32USD/kW押し上げ、炭素コスト削減がその効果を媒介する。太陽光が最も感度が高く（5.82）、洋上風力は約40USD/t以上で競争力を持つ。
English
Using 540 project-level observations across solar PV, onshore and offshore wind in 30 jurisdictions (2019-2024), this study builds a cost-benefit model of renewable investment under carbon pricing. Each additional USD/tCO2e raises project NPV by 4.32 USD/kW, mediated by carbon cost savings. Solar PV shows the highest sensitivity (5.82), while offshore wind needs carbon prices above ~40 USD/t to become cost-competitive.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本ではGXリーグや炭素価格制度（GX-ETS、2028年本格稼働予定）の議論が進む中、炭素価格が再エネ投資のNPVに与える定量的影響を示す本論文は、企業の投資判断や政策設計に直接的な示唆を与える。特に洋上風力の競争力閾値は日本の洋上風力促進区域の入札設計に参考になる。
In the global GX context
As carbon pricing expands globally (EU ETS, CBAM, emerging Asian schemes), this paper quantifies how carbon prices translate into renewable project NPVs, offering empirical grounding for transition finance and investment-grade policy design. The technology-specific thresholds inform where carbon pricing alone can drive deployment versus where additional support is needed.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a replicable cost-benefit framework linking carbon price levels to technology-specific NPV sensitivity, useful for comparative energy transition modeling.
🏢実務担当者:Helps corporate energy and finance teams assess renewable project viability under internal carbon prices or expected regulatory costs.
🏛政策担当者:Offers evidence on carbon price thresholds needed to make offshore wind competitive, informing carbon market and renewable support design.
📄 Abstract（原文）
We build a cost-benefit model to assess the economic viability of renewable energy investment under carbon pricing mechanisms, drawing on 540 project-level observations from solar photovoltaic, onshore wind and offshore wind technologies in 30 jurisdictions over the period 2019 to 2024. The analytical approach integrates levelized cost of energy analysis with carbon-adjusted net present value estimation and includes technology-specific learning curves as well as carbon cost savings as a mediation pathway. Using baseline regressions with year and technology fixed effects, it is seen that an additional carbon price of 1 USD per metric ton of CO2 equivalent is associated with a 4.32 USD/kilowatt increase in the project’s net present value, which is found to be robust to various assumptions on the outcome measure and the discount rate between 5 and 9 percent. Carbon cost savings - the avoided emission costs compared with a fossil fuel generation baseline - are found to mediate the pricing effect using the Baron and Kenny approach by reducing the carbon price coefficient from 4.316 to 2.294. The technology heterogeneity is evident in the scenario analysis, when the carbon price is low (25 USD/Mt), medium (75 USD/Mt) and high (150 USD/Mt). Solar PV projects turn into positive NPVs in all three scenarios and have the highest marginal sensitivity of 5.82 USD/kW/USD$ increase in carbon price, followed by onshore wind (4.16) and offshore wind (3.58). Due to the fact that offshore wind is more capital intensive than more mature technologies, a carbon price of over ~40USD/MT is required for it to become cost-competitive.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://fieam.org/index.php/ojs/article/view/319first seen 2026-10-11 04:49:09
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