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Comparative effects of US and China trade with Africa on carbon emissions

米国と中国のアフリカとの貿易が炭素排出に与える影響の比較 (AI 翻訳)

Abel Dula Wedajo, Mesfin Welderufael Berhe

Discover Environment📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-05-02#政策
DOI: 10.1007/s44274-026-00714-3
原典: https://doi.org/10.1007/s44274-026-00714-3

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

この論文は、米国および中国とアフリカ諸国との貿易が二酸化炭素排出強度に与える影響を比較分析した。2002年から2023年の42アフリカ経済のデータを用い、動的パネル推定により、輸出が排出を増加させる一方、輸入の影響は非対称であることを示した。貿易拡大が環境を考慮しないと炭素ロックイン効果を生むと警告し、持続可能なグリーン変革に沿った貿易政策を提唱する。

English

This paper compares the effects of US-Africa and China-Africa trade links on CO2 emission intensity in 42 African economies from 2002 to 2023. Using dynamic panel estimation, it finds that exports increase emissions, while imports have asymmetric and heterogeneous effects depending on the trading partner and country quantile. It warns that trade expansion without environmental considerations creates carbon lock-in, and calls for trade policies aligned with sustainable green transformation in Africa.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

本論文は日本企業がアフリカと貿易する際の炭素排出影響を示唆するが、直接的な日本のGX政策(SSBJや有報)との関連は薄い。しかし、日本のサプライチェーン排出管理における国際貿易の影響を考える上で参考になる。

In the global GX context

This paper contributes to the global understanding of how trade with major economies affects emissions in developing regions, relevant for carbon accounting and policy design under frameworks like the Paris Agreement and CBAM.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Provides empirical evidence on asymmetric environmental impacts of US and China trade with Africa, useful for trade-climate researchers.

🏛政策担当者:Highlights the need for trade agreements to incorporate environmental safeguards to avoid carbon lock-in in developing economies.

📄 Abstract(原文)

Abstract A vast literature has examined the effects of trade liberalization on environmental pollution in Africa. Unfortunately, studies on the environmental impacts of Africa’s trade exchanges with leading global economies is missing. To address this, our paper comparatively explores the impacts of US-African and China-African trade links on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions intensity in 42 African economies, based on data from 2002 to 2023. By using dynamic panel estimation techniques, it tried to examine the asymmetric effects of trade exchanges on CO2 emissions. Our findings indicate that Africa’s trade relations with the two leading global economies present a mixed blessing regarding their effects on environment. The results reveal a significant positive effect of Africa’s exports, which increase CO2 emissions. Asymmetric and heterogeneous technical effects of imports are also observed across countries. While the effects of imports from China is particularly significant for economies at lower quantiles, the technical effects of imports from the US are substantial for economies at relatively higher quantiles points. Furthermore, the magnitudes of trade and other variables are heterogeneous across economies. Our paper implies that trade expansion without consideration to the environment creates carbon lock-in effects in the continent. It suggested that future trade policy and agreements should aligned with sustainable green transformation in Africa.

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