持続可能な食料システムに向けた農業産業団地のスマートエネルギー転換：政策調整経路と動的進化シミュレーション

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:システムダイナミクスを用いた政策協調と技術ロックイン解除の定量モデルとして、農業・エネルギー・気候政策の統合研究に応用可能な手法を提供する。

🏢実務担当者:食品・農業関連企業がサプライチェーン上流の脱炭素化ポテンシャルと政策支援の効果を評価する際の参考になる。

🏛政策担当者:部門縦割りを超えた政策調整が技術ロックイン解除と炭素強度低減に有効であることを示し、農業・エネルギー政策の統合設計に示唆を与える。

Introduction Based on the profound evolution of global “dual carbon” goals and sustainable food systems, agri-food parks are key nodes with high energy consumption and high carbon emissions in the food supply chain. Their smart energy systems provide a feasible path for low-carbon transition, but face governance obstacles such as policy fragmentation, departmental silos, and instrument conflicts, which constrain sustainable food production. Methods This study constructs a system dynamics model encompassing four subsystems: energy technology, digital infrastructure, policy market, and environmental goals. It identifies six core feedback loops and, through simulation for the period 2025 to 2040, reveals the mechanisms of policy coordination, and use sensitivity analysis to ensure robustness. Meanwhile, the study adopts the micro-perspective of the agri-food park, incorporating the entire process of policy coordination into a systematic endogenous feedback structure. Results The results show that the smart energy system of agri-food park possesses endogenous growth potential. The cumulative installed capacity of smart energy increased from 50 MW to 885.269 MW, representing a nearly 16.7 fold growth over the 15 year period, with an average annual compound growth rate of approximately 20.6%.Compared with the no policy intervention scenario, the multi policy coordination scenario boosted installed capacity by about 229.8%, indicating that strong policy support is essential to overcome initial development thresholds; strengthening goal coordination, tool optimization, and departmental integration can reduce the technology lock in effect from 0.683 to 0.300, a decline of 56.1%, and lower carbon emission intensity from 2.498 tons/10,000 yuan to 1.737 tons/10,000 yuan, thereby effectively breaking through existing technological lock-in and institutional barriers; and an increase in the carbon emission factor of smart energy alters the trajectory of new investments in carbon-based energy, significantly curbing the expansion of high-carbon energy. Discussion The study confirms that policy coordination is a core lever for activating the system’s endogenous dynamics and driving the green transformation and upgrading of agri-food parks, thereby providing systematic scientific decision-making support for building a more resilient sustainable food supply chain and advancing the “dual carbon” goals.

• openalex https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2026.1885233first seen 2026-09-20 04:40:33