Policy pathways for low-carbon transport in Ireland: Carbon taxes and ICE bans
アイルランドにおける低炭素交通の政策経路：炭素税と内燃機関禁止 (AI 翻訳)
Daniel Cassidy, Kelly de Bruin
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、アイルランドの乗用車・公共交通の排出削減政策を評価するI3E-Transportモデルを開発。2024～2050年のシミュレーションでは、炭素税の効果は限定的だが、2035年からのハイブリッドを含む内燃機関（ICE）全面禁止によりCO2排出量を500万トン以上削減可能と示す。しかし、それでもカーボンバジェット達成には不十分であり、早期かつ協調的な政策対応の必要性を強調。
English
This paper develops I3E-Transport, an Irish passenger transport model, to evaluate carbon taxation and ICE phase-out policies. Simulations for 2024–2050 show that while a carbon tax yields limited abatement, a comprehensive ICE ban from 2035 reduces CO2 emissions by over five million tonnes by 2050. However, even this falls short of carbon budget ceilings, highlighting the need for earlier and coordinated policy action.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
アイルランドの分析だが、日本でも2035年までのICE車新車販売禁止や炭素税導入が議論されており、モデル分析手法や政策効果の定量化は日本の運輸部門脱炭素政策立案に示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of transport decarbonization policies using a novel integrated model. The finding that a carbon tax alone is insufficient and an ICE ban is necessary but still may not meet carbon budgets offers insights for global policymakers designing transport climate strategies.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:The I3E-Transport model and its integration with a CGE framework offer a methodological reference for transport policy analysis.
🏢実務担当者:Automotive and energy companies can use these findings to anticipate the pace of ICE phase-out and plan for EV transition.
🏛政策担当者:This paper provides quantitative evidence that early and comprehensive ICE bans, combined with carbon pricing, are needed to align transport with climate targets.
📄 Abstract（原文）
This paper develops I3E-Transport, a new Irish passenger transport model that integrates behavioural, technological, and macroeconomic drivers to assess the effectiveness of carbon taxation and internal combustion engine (ICE) phase-out policies on emissions from private cars and public transport. The model is soft linked to the Ireland Environment-Energy-Economy (I3E) CGE framework, allowing for a comprehensive evaluation of how these policy measures influence transport demand, vehicle stock composition, energy consumption and emissions within the passenger transport sector. Simulations for 2024–2050 indicate that, under a business-as-usual scenario, emissions rise by 2050 despite modest gains in energy efficiency and alternative vehicle uptake. A carbon tax yields only limited abatement, whereas a comprehensive ICE ban from 2035—banning hybrids—reduces CO 2 emissions by over five million tonnes relative to the baseline by 2050. However, the results show that the sector remains off track relative to implied carbon budget ceilings under a 2035 implementation, with only an earlier and comprehensive ban delivering substantial progress towards compliance, pointing to the need for timely and coordinated policy action to align Ireland’s transport sector with its long-term climate commitments.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2026.105523first seen 2026-07-26 05:13:27
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