極端気象下における再生可能エネルギー基地の持続可能な計画・評価フレームワーク

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:極端気象リスクを織り込んだ再エネ計画の二層最適化と評価指標の設計例として参照できる。

🏢実務担当者:蓄電池・水素・送電・DRを組み合わせた柔軟性調達と気象リスク評価の実務的枠組みを提供する。

🏛政策担当者:再エネ大量導入下での系統増強・柔軟性資源政策と、気象リスクを考慮した容量計画の必要性を示す。

Large-scale renewable energy bases are important for the low-carbon transition and sustainable development of power systems. However, extreme weather may cause prolonged low output or rapid fluctuations in wind and photovoltaic generation, resulting in capacity shortages, limited flexibility, and renewable energy curtailment. To address the inability of conventional planning methods to fully capture extreme-weather risks and multi-timescale flexibility requirements, this paper proposes a sustainable planning and evaluation method for renewable energy bases under extreme weather. First, typical extreme weather events are identified from wind speed and solar irradiance characteristics, and a Copula model combined with CEEMDAN-GRU is used to generate scenarios and forecast available wind and photovoltaic power. Second, a bi-level model integrating upper-level flexibility resource planning and lower-level 8760 h production simulation is developed to jointly optimize long-duration energy storage, coal-fired power, hydrogen conversion, transmission corridors, and demand response under carbon cost and emission constraints. A sustainability-oriented evaluation is then conducted from four dimensions: energy utilization, economic performance, operational flexibility, and environmental performance. Results show that under prolonged low-wind and low-solar conditions, the 48 h average combined wind and photovoltaic output decreases from 1549.11 MW to 811.70 MW, a reduction of 47.60%; during high-wind cut-out events, wind power drops from 3000 MW to 47.45 MW. The CEEMDAN-GRU model achieves average RMSEs of 243.318 MW for wind power and 113.752 MW for photovoltaic power, with R2 values of 0.8626 and 0.9356, respectively. The optimal plan includes 928.60 MW of long-duration energy storage, 536.40 MW of incremental coal-fired capacity, 183.70 MW of electrolyzer capacity, 146.80 MW of hydrogen-based generation, 138.50 MW of transmission expansion, and 48.60 MW of demand response. The proposed method can identify differentiated capacity and flexibility needs under extreme weather and support sustainable and resilient planning through coordinated multi-resource allocation.

• primary_source https://doi.org/10.3390/su182110877first seen 2026-11-01 23:58:58