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ScenarioMIP-CMIP7における土地利用・排出・持続可能性の将来：複数モデル評価

Land-use, emissions, and sustainability futures across ScenarioMIP-CMIP7: a multi-model assessment (原題)

Popp, Alexander, Humpenöder, Florian, Angelkorte, Gerd, Azuero-Pedraza, Cindy, Doelman, Jonathan, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Wu, Yazhen, Zhao, Xin, Baptista, Luiz Bernardo, Beier, Felicitas, Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon, Bos, Astrid, Carvalho, Lucas, Chang, Jinfeng, Chen, David Meng-Chuen, Crawford, Michael, Dietrich, Jan Philipp, Drouet, Laurent, Frank, Stefan, Fricko, Oliver +30

Zenodoプレプリント2026-09-04#エネルギー転換Origin: Global対象セクター: agriculture
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.22304777
原典: https://zenodo.org/records/22304777
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🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本論文は、CMIP7シナリオ生成のための初の複数統合評価モデル（IAM）による土地利用・AFOLU排出の将来評価を提供する。弱い政策シナリオは気候・食料・生物多様性に失敗し、野心的な緩和は土地部門を炭素吸収源に変えるが、需要側変革が供給側バイオエネルギーより優れた結果をもたらす。地域間で緩和負担の不均衡が生じ、公平性が重要となる。

English

This paper provides the first multi-model assessment of land-use and AFOLU GHG futures for the CMIP7 scenario generation, using seven IAMs. Weak-policy pathways fail on climate, food, and biodiversity; ambitious mitigation turns land into a carbon sink, but demand-side transformation outperforms supply-side bioenergy. Mitigation burden is uneven across regions, making equity decisive.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本では、土地利用やAFOLU排出は国内排出量の一部に過ぎないが、食料輸入やバイオマス調達を通じて海外の土地利用変化と関連する。SSBJ開示やサプライチェーン排出管理において、土地利用変化に伴う間接排出の考慮が今後重要になる可能性がある。

In the global GX context

This study informs global climate policy and sustainability assessments, providing a foundation for IPCC AR7 and IPBES. It highlights trade-offs between supply-side and demand-side mitigation, relevant for national and corporate climate strategies under TCFD/ISSB frameworks.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Provides a benchmark multi-model comparison of land-use futures for CMIP7, useful for scenario analysis and model development.

🏢実務担当者:Insights on land-based mitigation options and demand-side strategies can inform corporate sustainability and supply chain decisions.

🏛政策担当者:Highlights the need for integrated land-use policies that balance climate, food, and biodiversity, and address regional equity.

📄 Abstract（原文）

Managing the global land system requires balancing food, energy, and material production with climate change mitigation and ecosystem conservation, while the agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) sector accounts forroughly 20% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Here we provide the first multi-model assessment of land-use and AFOLU GHG futures for the new CMIP7 scenario generation, which spans scenarios of climate-policy failure to deep sustainability transformation, enriching the portfolio of assessed land-based mitigation options and addingexplicit demand-side and overshoot pathways. Using seven structurally diverse integrated assessment models (IAMs)across seven marker scenarios and a range of non-marker scenarios of ScenarioMIP-CMIP7, four findings emerge.Weak-policy pathways (H-SSP3, M-SSP2) fail simultaneously on climate change mitigation, food security, and biodiversity loss prevention, with continued agricultural expansion, deforestation, and high AFOLU emissions. Ambitious mitigation turns the land sector into a strong carbon sink by 2100, but the route matters: supply-side bioenergy and BECCS (bioenergy with carbon capture and storage; L-SSP2) deliver worse outcomes than integrated demand-side transformation (VL-SSP1) for biodiversity, agricultural non-CO₂ emissions, nitrogen pollution, and food security, a two-marker contrast rather than an ensemble result; delayed action (LN-SSP2, ML-SSP2, HL-SSP5) aggravates these challenges. Demand-side transformation (dietary shifts, food-waste reduction) and systemic supply-side productivity gains enable sustainable mitigation, consistent with the eradication of hunger assumed in VL-SSP1. Mitigation also reshapes land unevenly across regions (reforestation in Latin America, bioenergy feedstock production in Asia, and cropland expansion in Middle East & Africa under delayed action) concentrating the mitigation burden where governance and food security are often weakest, making the equity of these transitions decisive. By developing the CMIP7 markerscenarios across a structurally diverse model ensemble, this study provides a solid land-sector foundation for next sustainability assessments such as the IPCC AR7 and IPBES assessment cycles.

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