CBAM IN NORTH MACEDONIA: SECTORAL EXPOSURE, COST BURDEN AND POLICY OPTIONS

北マケドニアにおけるCBAM：セクター別曝露、コスト負担、政策オプション (AI 翻訳)

Silvana Mojsovska, Zlatko Veterovski

Economic Development/Ekonomski razvoj📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-07-15#炭素価格Origin: EU経営インパクト: 調達リスク対象セクター: steel

原典: https://doi.org/10.55302/ed26282174m

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本論文は、EUの炭素国境調整メカニズム（CBAM）が北マケドニアの輸出産業に与える影響を分析し、特に鉄鋼セクターの曝露が大きいことを示す。2034年の完全実施時には年間約7,040万ユーロのコスト負担が生じると推定し、国内炭素価格制度の導入が最適な政策対応であると主張する。これにより、輸出業者の負担を軽減し、税収を国内に留めつつ、産業の脱炭素化を促進できるとしている。

English

This paper analyzes the impact of the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on North Macedonia's export sectors, highlighting significant exposure in iron and steel. It estimates annual costs of approximately EUR 70.4 million by 2034 and argues that a domestic carbon pricing framework is the optimal policy response, neutralizing costs for exporters, retaining fiscal revenue, and incentivizing industrial decarbonization.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本企業にとっても、CBAMの影響はEU輸出に関わるサプライチェーン全体に及ぶ可能性があり、本論文の分析手法は日本におけるカーボンプライシング政策の検討や、輸出産業の競争力維持に示唆を与える。特に、国内炭素価格の導入がCBAM負担を軽減するという論点は、日本の炭素税や排出量取引制度の設計に参考となる。

In the global GX context

This paper provides a valuable case study for non-EU countries navigating CBAM, demonstrating how domestic carbon pricing can mitigate its adverse effects. It contributes to the global discourse on carbon border adjustments and policy responses, offering insights for countries with significant exports to the EU.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Provides a quantitative framework for assessing CBAM exposure and evaluating domestic carbon pricing as a policy response.

🏢実務担当者:Highlights the need for export-oriented companies to understand CBAM cost pass-through and consider domestic carbon pricing implications.

🏛政策担当者:Offers evidence for designing domestic carbon pricing to neutralize CBAM costs and retain fiscal revenues.

📄 Abstract（原文）

The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) applies a carbon price to EU imports of cement, iron and steel, aluminium, fertilizers, electricity and hydrogen, based on embedded greenhouse gas emissions. Al though the obligation to surrender CBAM certificates falls on EU importers, the associated costs are likely to be passed back to third country exporters through lower prices and eroded margins. Under CBAM rules, any carbon price effectively paid in the country of origin is deducted from the certificate obligation, retaining equivalent fiscal revenues domestically. This paper examines the sectors most exposed to CBAM in North Macedonia and estimates the related cost burden. Exposure is heavily concentrated in iron and steel, with modest impact on aluminium sector. At full implementation in 2034, estimated annual costs based on 2025 export quantities, 2026 default emission values (with the 10% regulatory mark-up) and an ETS reference price of EUR 73/tCO2 reach EUR 70.4 million, representing a conservative floor, as emission factor markups and ETS prices are both expected to rise. The paper argues that a domestic carbon pricing framework is the optimal policy response it neutralizes the net cost to exporters, retains fiscal revenue within the national economy and creates market based incentives for industrial decarbonization transforming an externally imposed burden into a lever for structural transformation.

🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース

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