南アフリカの2035年NDC緩和目標達成に必要な投資と公正な移行投資の評価
Assessing investment needed to achieve South Africa’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution mitigation target and associated just transition investments (原題)
Jesse Burton, Andrew Marquard, Tara Caetano, Bryce Mc Call, Gregory Ireland, Bruno Merven, Samantha Keen, Julia Tatham, Guy Cunliffe, Meagan Jooste Upadhyaya, Alison Hughes, Harro von Blottnitz, Faaiqa Hartley, Nosaibeh Nosrati Ghods, Usisipho Gogela, Savanha De Kock, Joseph Masenda, Matthew Gabin, Harald Winkler
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
南アフリカの2035年NDC緩和目標（320-380Mt）の下限達成に必要な投資を評価。2026-2035年の累積投資は3.47兆ランド（年平均3500億ランド）と推定。既存の資金フローと比較して大幅な増加が必要だが、新規発電容量は近年の投資水準で達成可能。ムプマランガ州の公正な移行や石炭資産の閉鎖・転換への投資は、どの経路でも必要となるノーリグレット投資とされる。
English
This report assesses the investment needed to achieve the lower end of South Africa's 2035 NDC mitigation target, estimating cumulative investment requirements of R3.47 trillion (2022 ZAR) over 2026-2035, or about R350 billion per year. Compared to existing financial flows, most interventions require significant increases, except new electricity generation capacity. Investments in Mpumalanga's just transition, including closure and repurposing of coal plants and mines, are no-regret investments across all pathways. The analysis highlights gaps between mitigation potential, policy, and implementation, requiring institutional strengthening and increased financial mobilisation.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本のGX政策において、公正な移行（Just Transition）の資金調達は重要な論点であり、石炭依存地域の産業転換は九州や北海道の炭鉱地域の経験と比較しうる。本報告書の投資評価手法は、日本の地域経済への影響評価やトランジション・ファイナンスの枠組みに示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This report provides a rigorous framework for assessing investment needs for NDC targets and just transition, relevant to global discussions on transition finance and climate finance. It offers a case study of a coal-dependent economy's transition, with lessons for other emerging economies and for international climate finance mechanisms.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a detailed methodology for estimating investment requirements for NDC targets and just transition, useful for climate finance research.
🏢実務担当者:Highlights no-regret investments in coal plant and mine closure, informing corporate strategies in energy and mining sectors.
🏛政策担当者:Offers evidence on investment gaps and the need for institutional strengthening, relevant for NDC implementation and climate finance policy.
📄 Abstract（原文）
This report assesses the investment needed to achieve the lower end of South Africa’s Second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) mitigation target range for 2035, including infrastructure and just transition investments. The analysis estimates cumulative investment requirements of R3.47 trillion, in 2022 ZAR, over 2026–2035 for the interventions that can be costed, or around R350 billion per year on average. Compared with existing financial flows, the annual investment required for most interventions needs to increase significantly. New electricity generation capacity is an exception: the necessary annual average investment has been achieved in recent years. This level of investment will nevertheless need to be sustained while investment in other mitigation and just transition interventions increases. Many of the investments identified are common across pathways within the communicated 2035 range of 320–380 Mt. These include investments associated with Mpumalanga’s just transition, particularly for assets reaching the end of their lives. Investments in the closure and repurposing of coal plants and mines are therefore no-regret investments: they are required across many futures, regardless of the level of mitigation ambition. Similarly, investments in automotive manufacturing transition and modal shifts are consistent across a range of future pathways.The investment assessment includes support to address socioeconomic transition challenges in affected sectors, as well as investment in new opportunities. It also highlights persistent gaps in many sectors between mitigation and development potential, sector policy and real-world implementation. Closing these gaps will require institutional strengthening, greater resources, including capacity and capability, and increased financial mobilisation.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.25375/uct.33238212first seen 2026-09-03 05:01:19
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