クリーンエネルギー製造ギャップの解消：米国太陽光・バッテリー・風力部品サプライチェーンのための戦略的資金調達枠組み

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:Provides a quantitative framework and stress-testing methodology for clean energy manufacturing finance.

🏢実務担当者:Offers a blended capital structure model that can inform corporate financing strategies for manufacturing expansion.

🏛政策担当者:Highlights the need for strategic public financing instruments and their calibration to achieve cost competitiveness.

<title>Abstract</title> <p> <bold>Introduction:</bold> Domestic clean energy production levels in the United States cover only 26% to 36% of wind blade needs, 35% of solar cell requirements, and under 45% of battery cell demand between 2030 and 2035. On the other hand, China controls about 60% to 80% of these global markets and benefits from subsidized financing that U.S. manufacturers cannot match. The United States clean energy manufacturing sector (CEMS) is therefore not adequately prepared for the ongoing energy transition. Closing this gap will require $186 billion to $231 billion in private capital and implementation of strategic structures. This paper presents the Clean Energy Manufacturing Finance Framework (CEMFF) as a medium to close the gap. <bold>Methodology:</bold> The study was performed in three stages. First, the Clean Energy Manufacturing Gap (CEMG) model was constructed to quantify domestic capacity shortfalls in wind blade, solar cell, and battery cell manufacturing for 2030 and 2035, using deployment scenarios from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and the Princeton REPEAT Project, with committed capacity and cost data drawn from the DOE, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), BloombergNEF, and S&P Capital IQ. Second, the Clean Energy Manufacturing Finance Framework (CEMFF), a four-instrument blended capital structure, was designed and calibrated to segment-level required returns. Third, the framework was stress-tested across 81 combinations of assumptions for tariffs, tax credits, interest rates, and deployment scenarios. <bold>Results:</bold> The CEMFF achieved portfolio-weighted average reductions in the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 190 to 280 basis points (bps), mobilized $6.1 in private capital for each dollar of public support, and delivered cost competitiveness with Chinese producers in 78% of modeled scenarios. The sensitivity analysis indicated that the framework is robust to individual shocks. However, a worst-case scenario involving tariff increases, erosion of the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) credit, and rate hikes reduced competitiveness to 38% across modeled scenarios. Overall, these findings have important implications for DOE Loan Programs Office (LPO) structuring, Treasury Section 6417 direct-pay guidelines, and Export-Import (Ex-Im) Bank supply chain guarantees. </p>

• Research Square https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-10525902/v1first seen 2026-08-27 04:41:44 · last seen 2026-09-09 04:31:03