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UAE脱炭素化に向けたグリーンビルディング認証の拡大：LEED採用、例示的炭素シナリオ分析、政策経路

Scaling Green Building Certification for UAE Decarbonisation: LEED Adoption, Illustrative Carbon Scenario Analysis, and Policy Pathways (原題)

Cazacova L, Yapicioglu B

Research Squareプレプリント2026-10-20#開示インフラ対象セクター: real_estate
DOI: 10.20944/preprints202610.1953.v1
原典: https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202610.1953.v1

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本論文はUAEにおけるLEED認証の普及状況を2006〜2024年の登録・認証プロジェクトデータで分析し、認証率25.95%という結果を示す。ドバイのケースでは認証済み建物が建物ストックの約0.11%にとどまり、文献由来の係数を転用した例示的シナリオでは約17.7億kg CO₂eの理論的削減可能性を試算する。プロジェクト単位の削減ポテンシャルと都市規模の普及率との間に大きな乖離があることを明らかにし、認証完了率の向上や既存建物の改修型認証拡大、認証評価と実測炭素性能の連携といった政策経路を提示する。

English

This study analyzes LEED registration and certification in the UAE from 2006-2024, finding a 25.95% certification rate (584 of 2,250 projects). A Dubai case shows certified buildings represent only ~0.11% of building stock, and an illustrative scenario using transferred literature factors estimates ~1.77 billion kg CO2e theoretical mitigation. It highlights the gap between project-level potential and city-scale adoption, proposing policy pathways on certification completion, retrofit-oriented certification, and linking ratings to measured carbon performance.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本では省エネ法・建築物省エネ法やZEB認証、CASBEEなど建物環境性能の評価体系が整備されつつあり、認証取得率と実測炭素性能の乖離という本論文の論点は、非住宅建築物の脱炭素開示や不動産セクターのトランジション対応を検討する日本企業・自治体にとって示唆に富む。

In the global GX context

As global disclosure frameworks (ISSB, CSRD, TCFD) increasingly demand building-level emissions data, this paper's finding that certification adoption lags far behind project-level mitigation potential speaks directly to the credibility gap in green building claims. Its call to link rating outcomes to measured carbon performance resonates with the broader shift from certification-based to performance-based disclosure in real estate decarbonization.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:認証普及率と実測性能の乖離を定量化する手法として、建物脱炭素研究のシナリオ設計に参考になる。

🏢実務担当者:LEED等の認証取得が都市規模の削減に直結しない点を踏まえ、認証と実測炭素性能の連携を開示戦略に組み込むべき。

🏛政策担当者:認証完了率の引き上げや既存建物の改修型認証拡大を通じ、建物規制と炭素性能測定を接続する政策設計の根拠となる。

📄 Abstract（原文）

Green building certification may support project-level emissions reduction, but its contribution to urban decarbonisation depends on verified performance and widespread adoption. This study examines how Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) adoption, an illustrative carbon scenario analysis, and related policy pathways could support the United Arab Emirates’ Net-Zero 2050 targets. A descriptive mixed-methods design combines a review of national climate policies, emirate-level green building regulations, and evidence on certified-building performance with an analysis of LEED projects registered and certified in the UAE between 2006 and 2024. A Dubai case study assesses certification penetration and uses an illustrative carbon scenario analysis to compare the possible scale of mitigation under transferred assumptions. The dataset contains 2,250 registered projects and 584 certified projects, yielding a certification rate of 25.95%; Gold and Platinum projects account for 363 certified projects. In Dubai, the 147 projects certified before 2017 represented approximately 0.11% of the building stock. Applying a literature-derived factor of 400 kg CO₂e/m² and a 74.9% operational-carbon reduction rate to the reported 5.9 million m² of UAE LEED-certified floor area produces a theoretical scenario value of approximately 1.77 billion kg CO₂e, equivalent to about 0.136% of the Dubai-wide scenario total. This result is a scenario-based scale comparison, not an estimate of verified Dubai savings, because the inputs are transferred from other evidence contexts and the current dataset does not link the reported UAE-wide certified floor-area total to individual Dubai projects or certification levels. The findings reveal a marked gap between project-level mitigation potential and city-scale adoption. The policy pathways identified include increasing certification completion, expanding retrofit-oriented certification across existing buildings, and connecting rating outcomes to measured carbon performance.

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