南アフリカの2035年NDC緩和目標達成に必要な投資と公正な移行投資の評価
Assessing investment needed to achieve South Africa’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution mitigation target and associated just transition investments (原題)
Jesse Burton, Andrew Marquard, Tara Caetano, Bryce Mc Call, Gregory Ireland, Bruno Merven, Samantha Keen, Julia Tatham, Guy Cunliffe, Meagan Jooste Upadhyaya, Alison Hughes, Harro von Blottnitz, Faaiqa Hartley, Nosaibeh Nosrati Ghods, Usisipho Gogela, Savanha De Kock, Joseph Masenda, Matthew Gabin, Harald Winkler
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
南アフリカの2035年NDC緩和目標（320-380Mt）の下限達成に必要な投資額を評価。2026-2035年の累積で3.47兆ランド（年平均約3500億ランド）と推定し、既存の資金フローと比較して大幅な増加が必要と指摘。石炭火力・鉱山の閉鎖や転換への投資は、どのような経路でも必要となる「後悔しない投資」と位置づけ、自動車産業の移行やモーダルシフトも重要としている。
English
This report assesses the investment needed to achieve the lower end of South Africa's 2035 NDC mitigation target, estimating cumulative requirements of R3.47 trillion (2022 ZAR) over 2026-2035, or about R350 billion per year. It highlights that investments in coal plant and mine closure and repurposing are no-regret investments across all pathways, and emphasizes the need for institutional strengthening and increased financial mobilization to close implementation gaps.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本のGX政策において、公正な移行（just transition）の視点は重要だが、本報告書は南ア固有の文脈に基づく。日本では石炭火力のフェードアウトや地域経済の転換を考える際の参考となるが、直接的な適用は限定的。むしろ、投資評価の方法論や「後悔しない投資」の概念は、日本のGX投資戦略の策定に示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This report provides a detailed investment assessment for achieving an NDC target, offering a model for other countries to estimate transition finance needs. It underscores the importance of just transition investments and identifies no-regret investments, which is relevant for global climate finance discussions and for countries planning their own NDC implementation. The methodology can inform international best practices for aligning financial flows with climate goals.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a comprehensive framework for estimating investment needs for NDC targets, including just transition costs, which can be adapted to other contexts.
🏢実務担当者:Highlights the scale of investment required and the need for institutional capacity, informing corporate and financial sector strategies in South Africa and similar economies.
🏛政策担当者:Offers evidence for mobilizing domestic and international finance for NDC implementation, emphasizing no-regret investments in coal regions.
📄 Abstract（原文）
This report assesses the investment needed to achieve the lower end of South Africa’s Second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) mitigation target range for 2035, including infrastructure and just transition investments. The analysis estimates cumulative investment requirements of R3.47 trillion, in 2022 ZAR, over 2026–2035 for the interventions that can be costed, or around R350 billion per year on average. Compared with existing financial flows, the annual investment required for most interventions needs to increase significantly. New electricity generation capacity is an exception: the necessary annual average investment has been achieved in recent years. This level of investment will nevertheless need to be sustained while investment in other mitigation and just transition interventions increases. Many of the investments identified are common across pathways within the communicated 2035 range of 320–380 Mt. These include investments associated with Mpumalanga’s just transition, particularly for assets reaching the end of their lives. Investments in the closure and repurposing of coal plants and mines are therefore no-regret investments: they are required across many futures, regardless of the level of mitigation ambition. Similarly, investments in automotive manufacturing transition and modal shifts are consistent across a range of future pathways.The investment assessment includes support to address socioeconomic transition challenges in affected sectors, as well as investment in new opportunities. It also highlights persistent gaps in many sectors between mitigation and development potential, sector policy and real-world implementation. Closing these gaps will require institutional strengthening, greater resources, including capacity and capability, and increased financial mobilisation.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.25375/uct.33238212.v1first seen 2026-09-03 05:02:06
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